Hodges' Model: Welcome to the QUAD: plague

Hodges' model is a conceptual framework to support reflection and critical thinking. Situated, the model can help integrate all disciplines (academic and professional). Amid news items, are posts that illustrate the scope and application of the model. A bibliography and A4 template are provided in the sidebar. Welcome to the QUAD ...

Showing posts with label plague. Show all posts
Showing posts with label plague. Show all posts

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Paper: The spatiotemporal distribution of human pathogens in ancient Eurasia

 Abstract

Infectious diseases have had devastating effects on human populations throughout history, but important questions about their origins and past dynamics remain1. To create an archaeogenetic-based spatiotemporal map of human pathogens, we screened shotgun-sequencing data from 1,313 ancient humans covering 37,000 years of Eurasian history. We demonstrate the widespread presence of ancient bacterial, viral and parasite DNA, identifying 5,486 individual hits against 492 species from 136 genera. Among those hits, 3,384 involve known human pathogens2, many of which had not previously been identified in ancient human remains. Grouping the ancient microbial species according to their likely reservoir and type of transmission, we find that most groups are identified throughout the entire sampling period. Zoonotic pathogens are only detected from around 6,500 years ago, peaking roughly 5,000 years ago, coinciding with the widespread domestication of livestock3. Our findings provide direct evidence that this lifestyle change resulted in an increased infectious disease burden. They also indicate that the spread of these pathogens increased substantially during subsequent millennia, coinciding with the pastoralist migrations from the Eurasian Steppe4,5.

Sikora, M., Canteri, E., Fernandez-Guerra, A. et al. The spatiotemporal distribution of human pathogens in ancient Eurasia. Nature 643, 1011–1019 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09192-8

My source: Carl Zimmer. What has ailed us over time, The New York Times International Edition, July 30th 2025. p.12.

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Forgotten Rationales ... ?

individual
|
INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES
humanistic ----------------------------------------------- mechanistic
SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL
|
group - population



"One of the earliest attempts to systematically classify disease began with John Graunt’s mid-seventeenth-century examination of London’s Bills of Mortality (1939[1662]). London’s series of bubonic plague outbreaks in the first half of the seventeenth century served as the backdrop for Graunt’s statistical analysis. His primary objective was to develop a more comprehensive picture of London’s mortality in order to construct a disease-incident baseline from which to better understand the effects of plague, which tended to overshadow other causes of death. Essential to these objectives were the broader concerns for creating "population profiles through a study of causes of death" (Alter and Carmichael 1999, 121), which Graunt accomplished by estimating London’s population through a geographical analysis, allowing him to calculate crude mortality rates." p.96.



UK coronavirus: care providers allege
Covid-19 death toll underestimated

Care operators warn coronavirus may
 already be in more than
50% of nursing homes

(Robert Booth and Rowena Mason,
Wed 15 Apr 2020 07.09 BST.
The Guardian)



"Sydenham designed his nosology with the needs of the physician rather than those of the statistician in mind. Accordingly, Sydenham and Graunt produced different classification systems based on the distinct purposes for which they were intended. This distinction (clinical vs. demographic) played a more significant role in the nineteenth century, foreshadowing some of the tensions and cross-purposes that informed the development of modern classification systems. As Alter and Carmichael (1999, 121) note: 'The problematic relationship between causes of morbidity and causes of mortality thus presented an ideological barrier between the concerns of physicians and the interests of statisticians. ...one group were lumpers, the other splitters.'" p.97.



Beemer, Jeffrey Keith, "Social Meanings of Mortality: The Language of Death and Disease in 19th Century Massachusetts" (2011). Open Access Dissertations. 428.
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_dissertations/428


Q. Is the state of social care and the applicable policy and legislation under which it operates an example of an 'inverted ring-fence'? Discuss & debate, justifying key policy and legislation as you see it and the implications amid the COVID-19 crisis and future (health and social care) policy.
https://twitter.com/h2cm/status/1250405469929328647?s=20


Remember(?) also:
Forgotten Streams ...