Paper: The spatiotemporal distribution of human pathogens in ancient Eurasia

 Abstract

Infectious diseases have had devastating effects on human populations throughout history, but important questions about their origins and past dynamics remain1. To create an archaeogenetic-based spatiotemporal map of human pathogens, we screened shotgun-sequencing data from 1,313 ancient humans covering 37,000 years of Eurasian history. We demonstrate the widespread presence of ancient bacterial, viral and parasite DNA, identifying 5,486 individual hits against 492 species from 136 genera. Among those hits, 3,384 involve known human pathogens2, many of which had not previously been identified in ancient human remains. Grouping the ancient microbial species according to their likely reservoir and type of transmission, we find that most groups are identified throughout the entire sampling period. Zoonotic pathogens are only detected from around 6,500 years ago, peaking roughly 5,000 years ago, coinciding with the widespread domestication of livestock3. Our findings provide direct evidence that this lifestyle change resulted in an increased infectious disease burden. They also indicate that the spread of these pathogens increased substantially during subsequent millennia, coinciding with the pastoralist migrations from the Eurasian Steppe4,5.

Sikora, M., Canteri, E., Fernandez-Guerra, A. et al. The spatiotemporal distribution of human pathogens in ancient Eurasia. Nature 643, 1011–1019 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09192-8

My source: Carl Zimmer. What has ailed us over time, The New York Times International Edition, July 30th 2025. p.12.

Simplifying universal health coverage to achieve political action

'The narrative on universal health coverage should be centred around four core elements: universality, equity, adequate financing, and preparedness in public health emergencies, write Katri Bertram and Justin Koonin'.

Bertram K, Koonin J. Simplifying the universal health coverage narrative can help to achieve political action BMJ 2024; 387 :q2441 doi:10.1136/bmj.q2441

A RESPONSE^* 

Can this be true? Why, this is absolutely marvellous! I?

Yes! Me. 

I do count! I'm seen, heard and included in the health care system and can have a voice in the service's development (1.). 

Not only that, but everyone in my - our community - has access - too (2.) ...

client - person - individual - self - patient - citizen

|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES              

humanistic ------------------------------- mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL   

|

couple - family - group - community - village/town - city

1. UNIVERSALITY	4. PREPAREDNESS
2. EQUITY	3. ADEQUATE FINANCING

... Now that health and social care are properly funded, they've finally done it! They've taken the key step to include education. This is crucial, critical to preventing poor health. Whenever possible we want people to self-care. The mother of all us has always whispered of the safety net. Now she shouts and rages. We all must listen to the stories of old.  Children should be brought up to be health and media... literate and recognise for them as an individual, the merit, the joy of health and well-being.

At last - the power's-that-be are addressing policy. Not just policy on paper, but implementing it, to assure the quality and cost of food, baby-formula, the air and water (3.).

What does this mean?^ It means health budgets can be better managed. Being prepared does not mean we reach immediately for the technical solution, write the prescription (for antibiotics). No. Being prepared means wising-up too. Together, we are ready to face each other, and right across the world: S-N and E-W. Now we can look to the future, climate change and Gaia: as ONE (4-5).

^O’Connell T, Rasanathan K, Chopra M. What does universal health coverage mean? Lancet 2014;383:277-9. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60955-1 pmid:23953765

(Cited by Bertram & Koonin)

5. Spiritual.

^*A response, that is both too simple and too complex. Discuss.

"Isomorphism of structures": intra- interDomain & model as theory?

"Another illuminating example of the advantages of a posthuman scientific position is the One Health Initiative. The movement is inspired by Rudolf Virchow (1821-1902), who coined the term zoonosis, arguing that there should be no dividing lines between animal and human medicine. This position has been gathering momentum in the last fifteen years. The One Health Initiative is a rather daring interdisciplinary alliance that unites physicians, osteopaths, veterinarians, dentists, nurses, and other scientific-health and environmentally related disciplines, on the basis of a simple hypothesis, which is the isomorphism of structures between humans and animals in immunology, bacteriology, and vaccine developments. This means that humans are both exposed and vulnerable to new diseases, like bird flu and other epidemics, which they share with animal species." p.16.

 
Rosi Braidotti. (2015). Yes, There Is No Crisis. Working Towards the Posthumanities. DiGeSt. Journal of Diversity and Gender Studies, 2(1–2), 9–20. https://doi.org/10.11116/jdivegendstud.2.1-2.0009

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I have felt for many years that there is an implicit 'theory' in Hodges' model.

"Lastly, model is defined by May Brodbeck as "an isomorphic representation of objects that leads to an unmistakable identification of the expression of the object with the physical object." p.235.

"Though, Models like theories, are systems of generalizations based on empirical findings yet there are differences between them. A theory basically involves a set of statements, called either laws or propositions which are related to each other and which express relationships between variables under varying states of the system. It has to be kept in mind that although some tentative or untested theories are called models, a model and a theory are only roughly identical, because a model has a more static connotation. Unlike concepts, models are not arbitrary, and can be confirmed or disconfirmed. They differ in the degree of isomorphism they have with the modelled phenomena. In social science, a model is not a concrete of "real" structure. For that would be complete and idiosyncratic, from which it would be difficult to develop generalizations. An important distincton between theory and model is that while the model has primarily predictive power, a theory has both predictive and explanatory power. However, this is not true in all cases. Apart from making predictions, models can also direct us towards new materials and ground which are not yet covered thereby helping us to discover more relationships, thus serving few heuristic functions." p.237.

PATNAIK, L. K. (1989). MODEL BUILDING IN POLITICAL SCIENCE. The Indian Journal of Political Science, 50(2), 234–250. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41855908

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I will add other useful references from here:

"Furthermore, in philosophy of science, a pragmatic view on modelling has emerged over the last decade, in which the relation between a model and its target, traditionally expressed as representation in the form of formal, structuralist or syntactic morphism (such as isomorphism), is being replaced by emphasizing a pragmatic relationship, often simply described as a situation where somebody creates a model of something with some purpose (Gelfert 2016, 113)." pp.344-45.

Ciula, A., Eide, Ø., Marras, C., & Sahle, P. (2018). Models and Modelling between Digital and Humanities. Remarks from a Multidisciplinary Perspective. Historical Social Research / Historische Sozialforschung, 43(4), 343–361. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26544261

Plus for completeness:
Gelfert, Axel. 2016. How to do science with models: a philosophical primer. Cham: Springer. 

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In the conclusion: "Despite the growing body of research pertaining to a nascent theory of emergence, its central themes are based on a limited theory–model–phenomena conception that does not adequately support those conceptual abstractions. Take, for instance, the direct transfer of microscopic concepts to macroscopic levels of analysis. Strengthening the conceptual link beyond metaphorical device is essential to a robust process of theory building and holds numerous applications, such as underpinning further social science research and theory-building pursuits. Without an effective isomorphism of theory and structures to real-world behaviour, it is an arguable conclusion that a theory of emergence for human organisation does not currently exist. Such is the importance of ontological adequacy and the interchange between conceptual models. It facilitates the practice of interdisciplinary science that characterises much of complexity research." p.319.

Yezdani, O., Sanzogni, L., & Poropat, A. (2015). Theory of emergence: introducing a model-centred approach to applied social science research. Prometheus, 33(3), 305–322. https://doi.org/10.1080/08109028.2016.1144669

My emphasis.