ii WCCS26: World Conference on Complex Systems 20-22nd April

Day 1

Plenary Talk: Reda Benkirane - Lost in Complexity: Welcome to the Real World

A first slide considered Abraham Maslow's book The Psychology of Science and his thought on the "law of the instrument". Maslow's hierarchy of needs is a key primer for new students to many disciplines, including nursing, and psychology. The purpose of Benikrane's focus on instruments concerns the emergence of civilisation and roles of agriculture, and war in the rise of community at several scales from village, to cities, states and nations. In terms of flow the slides highlighted the next speaker Peter Turchin's END TIMES, and two books by Johann Chapoutot, LES IRRESPONSABLES, and FREE TO OBEY.

In response to the slide with Einstein's -

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them":

- may I please class 'health - care' as a world? The thought that the medical, bio-medical, and bio-psycho-social encourages, sees enacted, and sustained a : is this fit for the problems of the 21st century. I like the slide's heading 'Beyond Complexity'. Such is the pace of change, which is labelled 'progress' that each one of us wakes up momentarily stupified and lost in complexity.

Keynote Speaker: Peter Turchin - The Great Holocene
Transformation: What Complexity Science Tells Us About The Evolution of Complex Societies

Turchin's keynote reminded me of Jared Diamond's book Guns, Germs and Steel. Reading GGS I realised there is more to 'axes' than I thought, especially from the individual to collective scales. It appears that whichever label - academia, research or education - you would like to apply, they all need a conceptual framework. Just as, individually, we all need a model of self, others and the world. This was a marvellous journey, through millennia of humanities' evolution, social, and political development, all realised through complexity. While attractors are to the fore, architecture and archaeology are regular distractors for me. Reading Holocene then had me hooked. 

Star Maker

A fellow delegate and speaker I dined with a few times encouraged me to read 'END TIMES'. I will seek it out later this year, (the next Hay-on-Wye visit?). Turchin is seeking to account for how human societies have reached their current state of organisation. The role of self-protection, seeking food, shelter, co-operation are all factors, with the emergence of religions, and agriculture. Several theories to date were covered [including, cultural multilevel selection, see Wilson et al. (2023)], plus a major project on cultural evolution: The Seshat: Global History Databank. For all the current loss and misery, conflict has paid a major role in cultural and political development. The prefix 'macro' features here. There was a social scale (people): FROM 10s - in foraging bands through TO 100,000,000s large nation-states. Mention of levels of scale, took me back to the work of Mario Bunge. The application of the Hertzsprung-Russell 'main sequence' (H-R) diagram is a great idea. I think Olaf Stapleton, author of Star Maker would have approved. 

This itself, for me, is reason enough to read Turchin. There is evolutionary biochemistry too, which is required in terms of a systems account. Is there a reflection of a main sequence construct between the SOCIOLOGICAL and SCIENCES domain of Hodges' model? 

 It is incredible the way new findings are regularly pushing even further the dates of human milestones stepping-stones. Perhaps we should always view progress in this way, and enjoy the 'moment'. There is still the puzzle of ultrasociality, and how to explain it? Turchin is seeking a mathematical history, with a journal Cliodynamics. There is another SF reference here, in Asimov's psychohistory in the Foundation books, but with less emphasis upon maths. This is encouraging for Hodges' model, and the inevitable transdisciplinary approach these questions demand.

More to follow ...

D.S. Wilson, G. Madhavan, M.J. Gelfand, S.C. Hayes, P.W.B. Atkins, & R.R. Colwell, Multilevel cultural evolution: From new theory to practical applications, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 120 (16) e2218222120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218222120 (2023).

Is there such a thing as the holistic bandwidth of 'resilience'?

In preparing my presentation for World Conference on Complex Systems 2026 (WCCS26) next month^, I am reading:

Bridging the Macro and the Micro by Considering the Meso: Reflections on the Fractal Nature of Resilience

ABSTRACT. We pursued the following three interconnected points: (1) there are unexplored opportunities for resilience scholars from different disciplines to cross-inspire and inform, (2) a systems perspective may enhance understanding of human resilience in health and social settings, and (3) resilience is often considered to be fractal, i.e., a phenomenon with recognizable or recurring features at a variety of scales. Following a consideration of resilience from a systems perspective, we explain how resilience can, for analytic purposes, be constructed at four scales: micro, meso, macro, and cross-scale. Adding to the cross-scale perspective of the social-ecological field, we have suggested an analytical framework for resilience studies of the health field, which incorporates holism and complexity by embracing an ecological model of cognition, something supported by empirical studies of organizations in crisis situations at various spatial as well as temporal scales.  

Key Words: human resilience; organizational resilience; resilience; resilience engineering; societal resilience 

Since the turn of the millennium, it appears 'resilience' has exploded across the media, and literature. As a result, it has also been viewed negatively by mental health service advocates, and activists as they decry the run-down state of formal services. The 'recovery model', undoubtedly closely associated with personal resilience is not the only answer.

This paper is helpful, in several respects but specifically to illustrate the idea of how Hodges' model can frame holistic bandwidth, across its care / knowledge domains.

INDIVIDUAL

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    INTERPERSONAL    :     SCIENCES               

HUMANISTIC --------------------------------------  MECHANISTIC      

SOCIOLOGY  :   POLITICAL 

|

GROUP

individual - emotional - mental resilience	resilience engineering
human & societal resilience	organizational resilience

 

I think the answer is yes. 

But, what do you think (h2cmng AT yahoo.co.uk)?

Bergström, J., & Dekker, S. W. A. (2014). Bridging the Macro and the Micro by Considering the Meso: Reflections on the Fractal Nature of Resilience. Ecology and Society, 19(4), art22.
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06956-190422

 

See also:

Jones P. (2014) Using a conceptual framework to explore the dimensions of recovery and their relationship to service user choice and self-determination. International Journal of Person Centered Medicine. Vol 3, No 4, (2013) pp.305-311.  

 

Previously: 'complexity' : 'resilience' : 'holistic bandwidth' : 'fractal'

^Fingers x'd!

Paper: The spatiotemporal distribution of human pathogens in ancient Eurasia

 Abstract

Infectious diseases have had devastating effects on human populations throughout history, but important questions about their origins and past dynamics remain1. To create an archaeogenetic-based spatiotemporal map of human pathogens, we screened shotgun-sequencing data from 1,313 ancient humans covering 37,000 years of Eurasian history. We demonstrate the widespread presence of ancient bacterial, viral and parasite DNA, identifying 5,486 individual hits against 492 species from 136 genera. Among those hits, 3,384 involve known human pathogens2, many of which had not previously been identified in ancient human remains. Grouping the ancient microbial species according to their likely reservoir and type of transmission, we find that most groups are identified throughout the entire sampling period. Zoonotic pathogens are only detected from around 6,500 years ago, peaking roughly 5,000 years ago, coinciding with the widespread domestication of livestock3. Our findings provide direct evidence that this lifestyle change resulted in an increased infectious disease burden. They also indicate that the spread of these pathogens increased substantially during subsequent millennia, coinciding with the pastoralist migrations from the Eurasian Steppe4,5.

Sikora, M., Canteri, E., Fernandez-Guerra, A. et al. The spatiotemporal distribution of human pathogens in ancient Eurasia. Nature 643, 1011–1019 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09192-8

My source: Carl Zimmer. What has ailed us over time, The New York Times International Edition, July 30th 2025. p.12.

'Categories are destiny' Freud p.6. of 'Categories we live by'

Reading and enjoying for review:

Murphy, Gregory L. Categories we live by: how we classify everyone and everything. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2024.

Let's start at the beginning -

'Nowadays we are suspicious of categories, especially categories of people. Gender, ethnic, racial, and class categories are seen as a source of discrimination and inequity. If we saw each person as a unique individual, perhaps we wouldn't have all the problems caused by racism, sexism, and all the other -isms that afflict society.
In spite of these problems, I will argue that we cannot get rid of categories in general. They simplify and distract us from individual identities, which can be bad, yet if we didn't have them, we would find it impossible to navigate the world and deal with its incredible diversity.' p.7.

Reading what follows also from the book's introduction, I thought about public sector funded (socialist)  healthcare and the private provision:

'So, my sweater and my hair might both be brown, so we can say that they are both in the category of brown things. They are equivalent in the sense that I call both of them "brown." However, the category of brown things is not very interesting. When you know that something is in that category, you know exactly one thing about it-its color. There's nothing else to be known. Maybe the brown thing is alive or maybe it's inanimate; maybe its microscopic or maybe it's as big as a planet; maybe it moos or maybe it sings oI maybe it is silent. The category doesn't tell you any of those things These single-criterion categories are kind of degenerate. Yes, items that share the criterion (brownness, being three inches long, taking at least half an hour, or whatever) are equivalent, but only in the one property that defines the category. Indeed, you can define trivial categories that only have one ridiculous feature in common, like things that you have touched in the last forty-nine seconds, or objects that are exactly fifteen miles from Cincinnati. Those are not categories that people form, because they are not useful.' p.11.

There is much ongoing debate about parts of the UK's NHS being 'sold-off' - taken-over by private companies with consequences for the quality of care, e.g. cataract services:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/10/eye-doctors-say-private-cataract-operations-have-hurt-the-nhs?CMP=share_btn_url

Having worked for the NHS - now NHS Professionals since 1977, the current problems faced by the service and experienced by some patients, carers, friends and family members is upsetting.

Murphy's observation contrasting the utility of categories at the individual and collective level is a great opener. Especially for the basic structure of Hodges' model and the vertical axis.

I've written previously(?) how I think that it is true, throughout my career even as a ward manager (there were some exceptions!) and community MH nurse, I/we have been cocooned from having to be concerned about the budget. When you stop and think about it, how do the 'things' in the category of economics impinge on the biomedical, biopsychosocial model? The ward was a mechanism; it kind-of run itself, which for change agents (those who use the word transformation a lot) is an ongoing issue. The two categories that matter - even as they are global - are illness and prevention. The NHS puts supertankers to shame, in its inability to pivot - turn.

At the end of the day (and night - 24/7/365!) though healthcare must be paid for.

Murphy's explanation about degenerate categories is fascinating too (and this is just the intro!). It sees me (in danger of making a category mistake) as I think about singletons, and 'degenerate' as applies in mathematics, and the debate of finance. The tension of seeing the individual as a unique being, in order to be person-centred, but the service, the system would place them in all in the category of 'payer'.

Viewed across the funding divide, is the other inevitably viewed as degenerate? On page 80 now. More to follow. I'm still kicking all this around; while the government kicks the 'can' of social care down the road.

Many thanks to MIT Press for the review copy.

Previously: Salutogenic Perspectives and Supertankers - Public Health

"Isomorphism of structures": intra- interDomain & model as theory?

"Another illuminating example of the advantages of a posthuman scientific position is the One Health Initiative. The movement is inspired by Rudolf Virchow (1821-1902), who coined the term zoonosis, arguing that there should be no dividing lines between animal and human medicine. This position has been gathering momentum in the last fifteen years. The One Health Initiative is a rather daring interdisciplinary alliance that unites physicians, osteopaths, veterinarians, dentists, nurses, and other scientific-health and environmentally related disciplines, on the basis of a simple hypothesis, which is the isomorphism of structures between humans and animals in immunology, bacteriology, and vaccine developments. This means that humans are both exposed and vulnerable to new diseases, like bird flu and other epidemics, which they share with animal species." p.16.

 
Rosi Braidotti. (2015). Yes, There Is No Crisis. Working Towards the Posthumanities. DiGeSt. Journal of Diversity and Gender Studies, 2(1–2), 9–20. https://doi.org/10.11116/jdivegendstud.2.1-2.0009

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I have felt for many years that there is an implicit 'theory' in Hodges' model.

"Lastly, model is defined by May Brodbeck as "an isomorphic representation of objects that leads to an unmistakable identification of the expression of the object with the physical object." p.235.

"Though, Models like theories, are systems of generalizations based on empirical findings yet there are differences between them. A theory basically involves a set of statements, called either laws or propositions which are related to each other and which express relationships between variables under varying states of the system. It has to be kept in mind that although some tentative or untested theories are called models, a model and a theory are only roughly identical, because a model has a more static connotation. Unlike concepts, models are not arbitrary, and can be confirmed or disconfirmed. They differ in the degree of isomorphism they have with the modelled phenomena. In social science, a model is not a concrete of "real" structure. For that would be complete and idiosyncratic, from which it would be difficult to develop generalizations. An important distincton between theory and model is that while the model has primarily predictive power, a theory has both predictive and explanatory power. However, this is not true in all cases. Apart from making predictions, models can also direct us towards new materials and ground which are not yet covered thereby helping us to discover more relationships, thus serving few heuristic functions." p.237.

PATNAIK, L. K. (1989). MODEL BUILDING IN POLITICAL SCIENCE. The Indian Journal of Political Science, 50(2), 234–250. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41855908

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I will add other useful references from here:

"Furthermore, in philosophy of science, a pragmatic view on modelling has emerged over the last decade, in which the relation between a model and its target, traditionally expressed as representation in the form of formal, structuralist or syntactic morphism (such as isomorphism), is being replaced by emphasizing a pragmatic relationship, often simply described as a situation where somebody creates a model of something with some purpose (Gelfert 2016, 113)." pp.344-45.

Ciula, A., Eide, Ø., Marras, C., & Sahle, P. (2018). Models and Modelling between Digital and Humanities. Remarks from a Multidisciplinary Perspective. Historical Social Research / Historische Sozialforschung, 43(4), 343–361. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26544261

Plus for completeness:
Gelfert, Axel. 2016. How to do science with models: a philosophical primer. Cham: Springer. 

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In the conclusion: "Despite the growing body of research pertaining to a nascent theory of emergence, its central themes are based on a limited theory–model–phenomena conception that does not adequately support those conceptual abstractions. Take, for instance, the direct transfer of microscopic concepts to macroscopic levels of analysis. Strengthening the conceptual link beyond metaphorical device is essential to a robust process of theory building and holds numerous applications, such as underpinning further social science research and theory-building pursuits. Without an effective isomorphism of theory and structures to real-world behaviour, it is an arguable conclusion that a theory of emergence for human organisation does not currently exist. Such is the importance of ontological adequacy and the interchange between conceptual models. It facilitates the practice of interdisciplinary science that characterises much of complexity research." p.319.

Yezdani, O., Sanzogni, L., & Poropat, A. (2015). Theory of emergence: introducing a model-centred approach to applied social science research. Prometheus, 33(3), 305–322. https://doi.org/10.1080/08109028.2016.1144669

My emphasis.

'The Body Politic' c/o Dennett

 "Evolution embodies information in every part of every organism. A whale's baleen embodies information about the food it eats, and the liquid medium in which it finds its food. A bird's wing embodies information about the medium in which it does its work. A  chameleon's skin, more dramatically, carries information about its current environment. An animal's viscera and hormonal systems embody a great deal of information about the world in which its ancestors have lived. This information doesn't have to be copied in the brain at all. It doesn't have to be 'represented' in 'data structures' in the nervous system. . . . 

By using the old bodily systems as a sort of sounding board, or reactive audience", or critic, the central nervous system can be guided - sometimes nudged, sometimes slammed - into wise policies. Put it to the vote of the body, in effect." p.79.

INDIVIDUAL
|

 INTERPERSONAL    :     SCIENCES               

HUMANISTIC --------------------------------------  MECHANISTIC      

SOCIOLOGY  :   POLITICAL 

|

GROUP

MIND CONSCIOUSNESS COGNITION	ANATOMY - PHYSIOLOGY EVOLUTION BODY
	POLITIC

Dennett, D.C.  (1996) Chapter 3. The Body and its Minds. In. Kinds of Minds: Towards an Understanding of Consciousness. Basic Books.

An observational record and learning from 30,000 years ago

"A fascinating example is the shoulder blade of an ox unearthed in the 1980s (Figure 1) by archaeologists investigating a stone age encampment in the south of France. Carbon dating showed this to be approximately 30,000 years old. The bone was marked with inscriptions that the archaeologist couldn't decipher. It was clear they were neither a tally, nor a pattern, nor any recognisable form of writing. Late one night one of the archaeologists noticed the moon, and something in its shape caught his curiosity.

Aurignacian Lunar Calendar / diagram, drawing after Marshack, A. 1970; Notation dans les Gravures du Paléolithique Supérieur, Bordeaux, Delmas / Don’s Maps
Figure 1 my source: https://sservi.nasa.gov/articles/oldest-lunar-calendars/

Then it struck him. Here, on this fragment of bone, was a lunar calendar complete with 72 observations ... something like 1,600 generations ago. One of our common ancestors (statistically, all of us can claim a relationship to this thoughtful person) 30,000 years ago had the intellectual curiosity to watch the moon, night after night, and then transcribe these movements, at scale, onto the stone age equivalent of the back of an envelope, as he (or she) attempted to "think it through". What makes us human is our ability to think, learn and adapt to our changing environment. The story of the stone age learner gets even better when you imagine a small community of people (adults, adolescents, children on their laps) sitting around a campfire every night working out the meaning of the lunar phases together." pp.72-73.

Abbott, J. & Ryan, T. (2000). Chapter 4, How mass education eclipsed apprenticeship, The Unfinished Revolution: Learning, Human Behavior, Community, and Political Paradox, Stafford, UK: Network Educational Press. (The figure in the book does not include the bone.)

Previously: 'diagrams' , 'archaeology'

[I am also still trying to clear papers and books, as some posts will suggest.]

Book: The Vital Question

individual

|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES

humanistic --------------------------------------- mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL

|

group

Book: THE VITAL QUESTION

"We are nothing special. Bacteria such as E coli can divide every 20 minutes. To fuel its growth E coli consumes about 50 billion ATPs per cell division, some 50-100 times each cell's mass. That's about four times our rate of ATP synthesis. Convert these numbers into power measured in watts and they are just as incredible. We use about 2 milliwatts of energy per gram - or some 130 watts for an average person weighing 65kg, a bit more than a standard 100 watt light bulb. That may not sound like a lot, but per gram it is a factor of 10,000 more than the sun (only a tiny fraction of which, at any moment, is undergoing nuclear fusion). Life is not much like a candle; more a rocket launcher." p. 64.

Lane, N. (2015) The Vital Question: why is life the way it is? London: Profile Books. p.64 (Paperback)

George Monbiot & Ewan McLennan - Breaking the Spell of Loneliness

individual

|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES

humanistic -------------------------------------------  mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL

|

group-population

My source: BBC 2 or C4?

Book: SUPERHUMANS bio-enhancement

individual

|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES

humanistic -------------------------------------------  mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL

|

group-population

	Make Way for the Superhumans

My source: July 9 2016, The Times

Hodges' model as a Leitbild framework

individual
|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES

humanistic --------------------------------------- mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL
|

group

(to ensure, process, distribute, use, maintain, use, and preserve human service demands) = PURPOSE H U M	TECHNOLOGY ECOLOGY (as Nature) related activities* distribute   'hard systems'  use PROCESS
A N S Sociology 'soft systems' *behaviours	Politics economy STANDARDS ensure (assure)

Image and reference:

Klug, H., 2012. An integrated holistic transdisciplinary landscape planning concept after the Leitbild approach. Ecological Indicators 23, 616–626. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.05.019

“A Leitbild (pl. Leitbilder) is a summary statement describing a desired and releasable future state for a specific issue or spatial unit, which takes account of the primary objectives and drivers in a holistic and integrated way. All present knowledge is used to balance future constraints and demands from social, economic, cultural, political and environmental perspectives. Therefore, a commonly accepted Leitbild projects a specified trajectory for the future spatial structure, distribution, utilisation, condition and development of the socio-natural system. It provides a set of guidelines that shape actions, and a framework within which the impact of particular developments can be judged and socially negotiated.” p.617.

'Information' a definition

Exactly what information is (at least one very useful technical definition of it) is answered by the mathematical theory of information. A rich field with many applications to biology, linguistics, and electronics, the theory is couched in the language of bits, each bit of information conveying one binary choice. [Hence 5 bits, for example, convey 5 such choices and are sufficient to distinguish from among 32 (or 2⁵) alternatives, there being 32 (2⁵) possible yes-no sequences of length 5.] Bits serve too as units in the numerical measure of such notions as the entropy of information sources, the capacity of communication channels, and the redundancy of messages.

Source: Paulos, J.A., (1991) Binary numbers and codes, Beyond Innumeracy, p.26.

Additional links:

W2tQ 'information'

W2tQ 'Ye Olde paper: 1996 "Humans, information and science'

Ye Olde paper: 1996 "Humans, information and science"

I learned this past week that the abstract of an old paper is available online. Published in 1996 this was pre-website days and information in a nursing context is a subject I've often thought of returning to

Journal of Advanced Nursing

Volume 24 Issue 3
1996: Pages 591 - 598.

Published Online: 28 Jun 2008
Humans, information and science

ABSTRACT

The use of information forms the basis of nursing policies, standards and professional codes of conduct. Although used intuitively, nurses must now also grapple empirically with information needs often defined by others, and with the technology used to capture and process it. Even the briefest contemplation of 'information' reveals a truly pervasive concept. Information is ubiquitous. In order to care effectively in the so-called 'information age' health care professionals need to understand information.

This paper is a small contribution to that effort, attempting to conjoin the disparate fields of health and the information sciences, and the basic sciences upon which they are based. This paper explores how definitions of information formulated in computing and communication theory relate to health and other aspects of human experience. The strategy adopted to achieve this is threefold. First, there is the vexed question of defining data, information and knowledge. Second, I consider how communication — that essential nursing activity — relates to information, meaning and the messages people seek to convey to each other. Thirdly, clinical situations are described in an information-oriented manner, using the concepts of 'redundancy' and 'entropy'. The conclusion provides an historical perspective.

Jones, P. (1996), Humans, information and science. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 24: 591-598. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2648.1996.23321.x

DOE’s SciDAC Visualization and Analytics Center for Enabling Technologies -

Even though the datasets involved are way beyond my day-to-day (clinical) work in mental health and an understanding of the techniques involved, I'm a sucker for the images and knowledge that scientific visualization opens up.

At Cyberinfrastructure Technology Watch the article -

DOE’s SciDAC Visualization and Analytics Center for Enabling Technologies - Strategy for Petascale Visual Data Analysis Success

- includes on page 2 discussion of survival of the data tsunami and refers to following figure:


For quite a while I've been thinking about individual health and social care and the point at which things become complex. You come to realise the role scalability plays in these things. And when you do - complexity is never far away. Just how far away are these esoteric datasets?

At VACET the body behind this work it speaks volumes that 'visualization' is not alone. It's not just about (and never was I'm sure!) pretty pictures: ANALYSIS figures large too (great to see enabling in there too!).