ii WCCS26: World Conference on Complex Systems 20-22nd April

Day 1

Plenary Talk: Reda Benkirane - Lost in Complexity: Welcome to the Real World

A first slide considered Abraham Maslow's book The Psychology of Science and his thought on the "law of the instrument". Maslow's hierarchy of needs is a key primer for new students to many disciplines, including nursing, and psychology. The purpose of Benikrane's focus on instruments concerns the emergence of civilisation and roles of agriculture, and war in the rise of community at several scales from village, to cities, states and nations. In terms of flow the slides highlighted the next speaker Peter Turchin's END TIMES, and two books by Johann Chapoutot, LES IRRESPONSABLES, and FREE TO OBEY.

In response to the slide with Einstein's -

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them":

- may I please class 'health - care' as a world? The thought that the medical, bio-medical, and bio-psycho-social encourages, sees enacted, and sustained a : is this fit for the problems of the 21st century. I like the slide's heading 'Beyond Complexity'. Such is the pace of change, which is labelled 'progress' that each one of us wakes up momentarily stupified and lost in complexity.

Keynote Speaker: Peter Turchin - The Great Holocene
Transformation: What Complexity Science Tells Us About The Evolution of Complex Societies

Turchin's keynote reminded me of Jared Diamond's book Guns, Germs and Steel. Reading GGS I realised there is more to 'axes' than I thought, especially from the individual to collective scales. It appears that whichever label - academia, research or education - you would like to apply, they all need a conceptual framework. Just as, individually, we all need a model of self, others and the world. This was a marvellous journey, through millennia of humanities' evolution, social, and political development, all realised through complexity. While attractors are to the fore, architecture and archaeology are regular distractors for me. Reading Holocene then had me hooked. 

Star Maker

A fellow delegate and speaker I dined with a few times encouraged me to read 'END TIMES'. I will seek it out later this year, (the next Hay-on-Wye visit?). Turchin is seeking to account for how human societies have reached their current state of organisation. The role of self-protection, seeking food, shelter, co-operation are all factors, with the emergence of religions, and agriculture. Several theories to date were covered [including, cultural multilevel selection, see Wilson et al. (2023)], plus a major project on cultural evolution: The Seshat: Global History Databank. For all the current loss and misery, conflict has paid a major role in cultural and political development. The prefix 'macro' features here. There was a social scale (people): FROM 10s - in foraging bands through TO 100,000,000s large nation-states. Mention of levels of scale, took me back to the work of Mario Bunge. The application of the Hertzsprung-Russell 'main sequence' (H-R) diagram is a great idea. I think Olaf Stapleton, author of Star Maker would have approved. 

This itself, for me, is reason enough to read Turchin. There is evolutionary biochemistry too, which is required in terms of a systems account. Is there a reflection of a main sequence construct between the SOCIOLOGICAL and SCIENCES domain of Hodges' model? 

 It is incredible the way new findings are regularly pushing even further the dates of human milestones stepping-stones. Perhaps we should always view progress in this way, and enjoy the 'moment'. There is still the puzzle of ultrasociality, and how to explain it? Turchin is seeking a mathematical history, with a journal Cliodynamics. There is another SF reference here, in Asimov's psychohistory in the Foundation books, but with less emphasis upon maths. This is encouraging for Hodges' model, and the inevitable transdisciplinary approach these questions demand.

More to follow ...

D.S. Wilson, G. Madhavan, M.J. Gelfand, S.C. Hayes, P.W.B. Atkins, & R.R. Colwell, Multilevel cultural evolution: From new theory to practical applications, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 120 (16) e2218222120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218222120 (2023).

IFS Report: 'From fiscal rules to fiscal traffic lights: rethinking the UK fiscal framework'

'In other words, the current framework means that macroeconomic volatility is mainlined into policy volatility, which adds unnecessarily to economic uncertainty and makes good policymaking less likely. There is also a problem of asymmetry: when the forecast improves, any additional ‘headroom’ is typically treated as free money and happily spent. Yet when the forecast worsens, the rules tend to get changed or ‘gamed’: Chancellors of all political stripes have proved adept at promising future tax rises or spending cuts which are unlikely to be delivered, but which allow them to meet the letter of their rolling fiscal targets. 

All this is to say, the current framework is not delivering good outcomes. It is not achieving sustainable public finances, it has limited credibility with financial markets, and it is not creating the conditions for good policymaking or for a high-quality public debate about the important issues at play. It seems likely that any framework, left in place for long enough, will start to create problems in practice, as unhelpful norms emerge and actors find ways to game the system. Just as the tendency of HM Treasury to fudge its forecasts in the 2000s was one reason for the creation of the OBR as a corrective mechanism, the dysfunction around the current framework necessitates a change in thinking and approach.'

INDIVIDUAL

|

    INTERPERSONAL    :     SCIENCES               

HUMANISTIC --------------------------------------  MECHANISTIC      

SOCIOLOGY  :   POLITICAL 

|

GROUP

'Fixation upon - lived [ equilibrium ] experience 'RAG' assessment of patients in mental health services - caseload management	fiscal headroom' GOOD - BAD PASS - FAIL Equilibrium Outcomes
Public Policy   Interviews   sustainable public finances   good policymaking (here) high-quality public debate Cost of Living	Report: IFS Policy Office for Budget Responsibility

My source: Valentina Romei, IFS urges end to fixation on fiscal 'headroom', Financial Times, 19 February, 2026, p.3.

Images: IFS

iv Book: Bill Ross - 'Order and the Virtual'

'The Philosophy and Science of Deleuzian Cosmology'

Systemists will find much here: 'principle of least action', 'principle of least resistance', equilibrium, open / closed systems, and entropy. A useful question is posed: 'Is complexity increasing? Is that average complexity across the universe; or the complexity of the most complex object? Deleuzes's Difference and Repetition is quoted:

'The values of implication are centres of envelopment. These centres  are not the intensive individuating factors themselves, but they are their representatives within a complex whole in the process of explication. ...' (p.255-6)'

Reading this I immediately thought of Bohm, who followed shortly after (still in Chapter 1!). In chapter 1, 'Chaos' could be read as Cosmos, hence the term rolling them together - chaosmos. This is the tract from which existence and becoming arise (re-reading). Deleuze's awareness of physics and quantum theory and its influence on his work is discussed, with chapter 2 providing continuity reaching to Leibniz (and 'The Calculating God'), also contributing is 'the complete concept', 'principle of sufficient reason', 'intensive individuating factors' and 'principle of identity of indiscernibles', for example. Even while the context is metaphysics (and it is not!), (for me) this seemingly presages a comprehensive health assessment:

'The necessity in question is the necessary inclusion of all predicates pertaining to an individual in the complete concept of that individual.' p.24.

There are several 'completes' to be unwound, and so better understood. Ross provides a key. This isn't a book to read and pass-on to a student, second-hand bookshop. It really deserves re-reading, mandatory here - to get hold of the ideas and interplay of Deleuze, Ross's understanding and it must be said interpretation, that also calls upon Dan Smith's Essays on Deleuze, (EUP) and directly Leibniz's work. 

'The complete concept idea of predication is furnished to map faithfully onto these principles concerning the nature of things.' p.26.

The expanse of thought and literature from across the channel, 'French Theory' has long tempted, teased and taunted (not-quite as severely as mathematics!). At least here you can get a sense of the traffic in thought and ideas. Deleuze is difficult (in-/compossibilities, kuklos exothen ...), until you relate: becoming over being, difference over identity, and creation over representation. Order and the Virtual helps in this task. Delueze is 'embedded' in the mechanics of complexity, and mathematics, but Deleuze and Ross can see - across - to the humanities (virtual and actual). 

'Lastly, while mathematical concepts are frequently adopted to illuminate Deleuze's argument, they should not be taken as metaphorically representative of processes in the world; this would be to ignore the broadside and extended attack on representation as a mode of thinking as such which occupies so much of Difference and Repetition. Rather, they serve as a particularly direct example of the differential processes to which all phenomena - natural, social, psychological are subject. In an unambiguous sense, it is eminently possible for problems prompting a mathematical response to express themselves in altogether different domains - natural, social, etc. The problem is, so to speak, a common root of all domains.' p.39.

Still grappling, I noted integration, actualization, parity of esteem, maths - the linear and non-linear. It seems Deleuze was challenged by the question of integration. Leibniz's contribution of the calculus is acknowledged. History and even the present remain preoccupied with finding boxes. Ross explains how for Deleuze, we should not discount turbulent phenomena that cannot be simply integrated, written off as random disorder.

If we associate complication, with implication and explication, do we invite two-fold (as a minimal - keyhole) 'surgery': (re-)constructive and destructive? Thank you Mr Ross. I see now, how the (infinity →) continuum will not be exhausted. Exploring axioms for Hodges' model, and what is axiomatic, I must check Albert Lautman's model of dynamic structuration, especially when set (against / with?) the problematic mode:

'The two modes relate to each other dialectically - a period of exploration followed by the resulting period of axiomatisation. Deleuze recognises both modes and their respective utility, but for his philosophy the problematic mode is by far the more important.' p.41.

Do our boxes still have a purpose? To tame the situation - at hand/mind/virtual?

More to follow here ...

Bill Ross (2024) Order and the Virtual: The Philosophy and Science of Deleuzian Cosmology. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press. 
https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-order-and-the-virtual.html

iii Book: Bill Ross - 'Order and the Virtual'

'The Philosophy and Science of Deleuzian Cosmology'

My book 'reviews' are unconventional in that they are not journal fare (format and quality-wise...); the book, or my reading of it - invariably refers to Hodges' model. I could argue that is not my fault, but a quality, something built in to the model. Anyway, what of the physical book itself?

The cover image is a marvel: Stone Quartet 1 by Patrick Haughton. 
[ Did someone say 'quartet'!* 😉]

Cover design by www.paulsmithdesign.com

Typeset in 10.5/13 Sabon, the fonts and styling through the book is clear, and easy to read (without regard to the technical content). The paper is thick, the quality contributing to a high contrast. 

The contents:

Abbreviations
Preface by Robin Durie and David Webb
1. Chaos
2. Entropy and the Complete Concept in Leibniz and Deleuze
3. Order
4. Order as Complexity
5. Sufficient Reason as Dissymmetry and the Evolutionary Paradigm
Conclusion
Notes
Bibliography
Index

The EUP website only lists four chapters for Order and the Virtual, but the book clearly has five. The conclusion is similarly omitted online: running from pp.175-181, I wish I'd written it.

That nursing and healthcare practice are bound up in philosophical considerations, values and ethics is fairly obvious. Care dilemmas would arise, calling for a multidisciplinary approach, and cross-disciplinary advice. Through this book, Bill Ross keeps highlighting for me, the way that once the uniform is donned, or the clock denotes an inbetweenness '0900-1700' for community staff, philosophy goes on the back-burner. The heat of the issue, and first rule of first-aid is felt, but it is not the primary concern. There is an international group of scholars for philosophy in nursing (and journal), but practitioners have, by definition - a job to do. If time is chaos and complexity (or appears as), then in health it is continuity, avoiding disruption and more often trying to 'heal' it.

Although Hodges' model presents as a symmetry; it is anything but. If we wish to symmetry-break, Hodges' model may assist. The flux and dynamics of care [insert your context] means that Hodges' model constantly changes its shape, form. Not as an objective statement, but an interpretation. Bill Ross's discussion on Nietzchean chaos and the superior principle of sufficient reason, demands and rewards a close reading (as does the whole text). Whether it is chaos, equilibrium, law and possibility cognitive - conceptual spaces invite ergodic (a cyclic) exploration. The mix of Deleuze and Leibniz's system makes for complex ideas, one probably needs to swim in. The book's first chapters are deep, technical but also inviting. There are encouraging links to psychotherapeutic thought, in the philosophy of difference, and how this is recognised, and change negotiated.

The scale is cosmological, with a section on ergodicity; and (inevitably) time, as per the quotation (p.10):

'Everything which happens and everything which appears is correlated with orders of differences: differences of level, temperature, pressure, tension, potential, difference of intensity. Carnot's principle says this in one way, Curie's principle in another, Gilles Deleuze (DR, 222)' (DR - Difference and Repetition).

There is a ponderous sense when assessment is routinized: assessment must be comprehensive. Do: tick all the boxes. Don't miss anything! How many levels of assessment should there be? If you want this number of assessments, what should I leave out? It is fascinating how we can frame time, not just 'set' against the axes of  Hodges' model, but a product of lifestyle, bio-physics, and even bio-psycho-social-politics. Is back to Earth - back to the individual? Not now. Contrast chronological and pathological time and not just for humanity. Ross follows Deleuze, Poincare, Neitzche and others in the long-term diagnosis of the universe, no less. A heat-death: the anti-fever. Now there's the collective, while in mental health, a diagnosis (or two ...) is still (often) contested, at least on twitter/X.

'The distinction for me is that metaphysics lives in that plane above where the concepts are not tied specifically to one field, but remain free to mobilise the salient questions as they play out among several fields.' p.15.

I don't think this just applies to metaphysics, but the extent (now) to which problems (clinical and generally) are multi- inter- and transdisciplinary (Ross acknowledges the pragmatic). Otherwise, with each step across a disciplinary boundary, our concepts lose their meaning, and the ergodic action (the around and around, back and forth ... our models and frameworks) is more akin to a drunken random-walk.

More to follow ...

Bill Ross (2024) Order and the Virtual: The Philosophy and Science of Deleuzian Cosmology. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press. 
https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-order-and-the-virtual.html

*And is that the fifth domain floating above?

The preface is titled 'Playing Cortázarian Hopscotch':
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hopscotch_(Cort%C3%A1zar_novel)

There is also a brief  'Series Editor's Preface'

"Rational Concepts" 1977 by Norman Dilworth

"Rational Concepts" 1977 by Norman Dilworth. Tate
© Norman Dilworth

Hodges' model: seeking rational* concepts to deliver person-centred, integrated care and make sense of subjective and objective realities.

ARTIST Norman Dilworth 1931 – 2023 [Born in Orrell, Wigan]
MEDIUM Screenprint on paper
DIMENSIONS Image: 600 × 600 mm
COLLECTION Tate
ACQUISITION Purchased 1981
REFERENCE P07424

[NOT ON DISPLAY]

Tate: https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/dilworth-rational-concepts-p07424

*Irrational too.

I sketched Dilworth's image on 5th March at Tate Liverpool, the exhibition: "Keywords. Art, Society and Culture in 1980s Britain" from 28 Feb 2014 to 11 May 2014.