Hodges' Model: Welcome to the QUAD: deep time

Hodges' model is a conceptual framework to support reflection and critical thinking. Situated, the model can help integrate all disciplines (academic and professional). Amid news items, are posts that illustrate the scope and application of the model. A bibliography and A4 template are provided in the sidebar. Welcome to the QUAD ...

Showing posts with label deep time. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deep time. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Bonjour Bayeux: Tapestries Historical & Modern

individual
|
INTERPERSONAL
: SCIENCES             
humanistic ------------------------------- mechanistic
SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL   
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group

'I think my favourite story to work on has been the 434 dinosaurs that are in the tapestry.  So much has changed about what we know about dinosaurs and all because the study of fossils and dinosaurs has grown up alongside geological survey for mining and petroleum drilling. Studies say dinosaurs were much more colourful than originally imagined and many were feathered, and in fact birds are their distant relatives.  Only 50 years ago we were taught that oil was made from decomposed dinosaurs and plants. Today research suggests oil formed from aquatic algae, called diatoms.

Much more than half of all life on earth died in a mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous period. The most agreed upon theory, based on research, suggests the cause was when an asteroid collided with the earth and triggered volcanic eruptions, that disrupted weather patterns, growing seasons and ecosystems.  This one-two punch killed off the majority of Earth’s flora and fauna, including the dinosaurs, all of which were unable to adapt to the changes in climate.'

Sandra Sawatzky -
https://www.theblackgoldtapestry.com/notes

Detail - Panel 1 - Beginnings

The Black Gold Tapestry



THE BRITISH MUSEUM

A historic loan from France

The Bayeux Tapestry

Experience / 10 September 2026 – 11 July 2027


My source: Sandra Sawatzky, Oil in a Material World, Resurgence & Ecologist, Nov/Dec 2022, Issue 335, pp.52-55.

See also: https://www.theblackgoldtapestry.com/

Previously: 'Canada' : 'environment' : 'activism'

Saturday, May 09, 2026

v WCCS26: World Conference on Complex Systems 20-22nd April

Day 2 Tuesday 21st April (Revisiting) Keynote Speaker: Abderrazak El Albani - 
Emergence of Intercellular Cooperation: At the Origins of Eukaryotic Complexity
Session Chair: Khawla Tadist

This keynote was fasacinating. As I begin this post on the 100th birthday of Sir David Attenborough, who would have us all see life in the broadest terms, value life and diverse habits, and Earth as our collective and shared home.

Abderrazak El Albani explained the search for LUCA the last universal common ancestor - 3.8 billion years ago. Many dates in the emergence story of humanity, have been progressively pushed back. The first fire, art, languages, our co-habitation and intimate relationships with Neanderthals.

In healthcare, as a practitioner you have to be aware of your scope of practice. At WCCS, scale (as in iv) was ever present across research in complexity, and complex systems. Not just physical size nano-to-mega but temporal too, as we journeyed billions of years. Several of the slides are presented here:

https://www.synchrotron-soleil.fr/en/news/discovery-oldest-macroscopic-planktonic-eukaryotes-contribution-nanoscopium-beamline (with a reference).

There is a video (French): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bh3t26cU7xc

I asked a question, which may have been psychological preparation for own presentation to follow. Listening, I could see how the work Abderrazak El Albani and his team are doing, could be readily translated to the search for life on Mars. There has been a 'routine' interchange of planetary material between Earth and Mars over the aeons. Fitting surely that the sedimentary rocks sought lie in  A key lesson, is that light helps us see, but not all lights are equal. Light sources brighter than the sun become incredible scientific instruments. The longevity of the dinosaurs was highlighted, at least 140 million years. There is no comparison with homo sapiens then, even as those dates have been pushed further back in time. Time defeated me as I tried to make the observation that even the dinosaurs did not make it to their first galactic birthday (c.250 million years - and what a carousel). I like the thought (slide) of 'Earth as Memory'. 

What really counted was the expressed concern about what is happening now: in the Anthropocene.

The second keynote:
Nigel Gilbert - Policy in a Complex World: Towards Complexity-Aware Policymaking
Session Chair: Ali Idri 

Was helpful to me, as the dated conundrum of benefits realisation from our technologies, and evidence-based policy still leaves a gap (for me) within the POLITICAL care/knowledge domain of Hodges' model. The illustration/graphic elements of Prof. Gilbert's slides were a brilliant complement to the content:

Prof. Nigel Gilbert - WCCS26 21st April

I wonder if within policy the constant in the equation is continuity and as a quantity it is an unknown? This seems to the case in health policy, across successive governments. You may (also) find this chart informative: https://www.cecan.ac.uk/news/the-visual-representation-of-complexity/

Perhaps, a key factor in complexity is the fact that nothing stays the same, so continuity is nuanced? Michael Quinn Patton's book Developmental Evaluation was noted re. learning while doing. Now I wish I'd held on to Qualitative Research & Evaluation Methods (4th ed.). The discussion of 'obesity system map' and 'whole systems analysis' was appreciated here.*

Since Marrakech and WCCS, I've noticed acknowledgement in the literature that 'research' is currently flooded with AI tools. I'm sure PRSM - Participatory System Mapper is a welcome addition, (as noted in iv) tools to facilitate participation are much needed:

Collaborative Creativity

The Participatory System Mapper (PRSM) is an app that makes it easy to draw networks (or 'maps') of systems, working together collaboratively.'

I will definitely check this resource out; and CECAN. After Prof. Gilbert, the next Track included my contribution, which I will return to. Rather distracted, I have a somewhat blurred slide, with: 'The global tensor of educational research is' then headed 'Learning poverty. Being unable to read and understsand a simple text; with points 1-4.'. I'm not sure which presentation this was, but zeroed in on the literacy theme, and the word tensor. Another slide refers to '6. Topological substitution for Success'. I think it is (writing this is helping recall!):

Harvey Spencer Sánchez-Restrepo, Jorge Louçã, Martha Belén Carmona-Soto and Sofialeticia Morales-Garza
Topological Patterns of Academic Success: Insights from Complex Network Analysis

'Always Label Your Axes' - Zazzle.

Before that there was another model, as the next keynote speaker: Chris Bauch demonstrated during the conference wearing a t-shirt:

Critical Transitions in Coupled Human-and-Natural Systems and their Early Warning Signals
Session Chair: Mohamed Essaaidi  

Previously: 'nexus'


*Jones P, Wirnitzer K. Hodges’ model: the Sustainable Development Goals and public health – universal health coverage demands a universal framework. BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health 2022;5: doi:10.1136/bmjnph-2021-000254

Wirnitzer, KC. et al. (2025) Toward a roadmap for addressing today's health dilemma – The 101-statement consensus report. Frontiers in Nutrition. Volume 12.
https://frontiersin.org/journals/nutrition/articles/10.3389/fnut.2025.1676080 DOI:10.3389/fnut.2025.1676080

S. Bettiol, P. Jones, H. A. Onyedikachi, and W. G. Kernohan, (2026) Bridging Gaps in Oral Health Frameworks: Mapping With Hodges' Health Career - Care Domains - Model, Journal of Public Health Dentistry. 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1111/jphd.70034

Thursday, April 30, 2026

ii WCCS26: World Conference on Complex Systems 20-22nd April

Day 1

Plenary Talk: Reda Benkirane - Lost in Complexity: Welcome to the Real World

A first slide considered Abraham Maslow's book The Psychology of Science and his thought on the "law of the instrument". Maslow's hierarchy of needs is a key primer for new students to many disciplines, including nursing, and psychology. The purpose of Benikrane's focus on instruments concerns the emergence of civilisation and roles of agriculture, and war in the rise of community at several scales from village, to cities, states and nations. In terms of flow the slides highlighted the next speaker Peter Turchin's END TIMES, and two books by Johann Chapoutot, LES IRRESPONSABLES, and FREE TO OBEY.

In response to the slide with Einstein's -

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them":

- may I please class 'health - care' as a world? The thought that the medical, bio-medical, and bio-psycho-social encourages, sees enacted, and sustained a : is this fit for the problems of the 21st century. I like the slide's heading 'Beyond Complexity'. Such is the pace of change, which is labelled 'progress' that each one of us wakes up momentarily stupified and lost in complexity.

Keynote Speaker: Peter Turchin - The Great Holocene
Transformation: What Complexity Science Tells Us About The Evolution of Complex Societies

Turchin's keynote reminded me of Jared Diamond's book Guns, Germs and Steel. Reading GGS I realised there is more to 'axes' than I thought, especially from the individual to collective scales. It appears that whichever label - academia, research or education - you would like to apply, they all need a conceptual framework. Just as, individually, we all need a model of self, others and the world. This was a marvellous journey, through millennia of humanities' evolution, social, and political development, all realised through complexity. While attractors are to the fore, architecture and archaeology are regular distractors for me. Reading Holocene then had me hooked. 

A fellow delegate and speaker I dined with a few times encouraged me to read 'END TIMES'. I will seek it out later this year, (the next Hay-on-Wye visit?). Turchin is seeking to account for how human societies have reached their current state of organisation. The role of self-protection, seeking food, shelter, co-operation are all factors, with the emergence of religions, and agriculture. Several theories to date were covered [including, cultural multilevel selection, see Wilson et al. (2023)], plus a major project on cultural evolution: The Seshat: Global History Databank. For all the current loss and misery, conflict has paid a major role in cultural and political development. The prefix 'macro' features here. There was a social scale (people): FROM 10s - in foraging bands through TO 100,000,000s large nation-states. Mention of levels of scale, took me back to the work of Mario Bunge. The application of the Hertzsprung-Russell 'main sequence' (H-R) diagram is a great idea. I think Olaf Stapleton, author of Star Maker would have approved. 

This itself, for me, is reason enough to read Turchin. There is evolutionary biochemistry too, which is required in terms of a systems account. Is there a reflection of a main sequence construct between the SOCIOLOGICAL and SCIENCES domain of Hodges' model? 

 It is incredible the way new findings are regularly pushing even further the dates of human milestones stepping-stones. Perhaps we should always view progress in this way, and enjoy the 'moment'. There is still the puzzle of ultrasociality, and how to explain it? Turchin is seeking a mathematical history, with a journal Cliodynamics. There is another SF reference here, in Asimov's psychohistory in the Foundation books, but with less emphasis upon maths. This is encouraging for Hodges' model, and the inevitable transdisciplinary approach these questions demand.

More to follow ...

D.S. Wilson, G. Madhavan, M.J. Gelfand, S.C. Hayes, P.W.B. Atkins, & R.R. Colwell, Multilevel cultural evolution: From new theory to practical applications, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 120 (16) e2218222120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218222120 (2023).

Tuesday, April 09, 2024

Historic Climate Ruling: States Must Step up Climate Action to Protect Human Rights

From: Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) PRESS ROOM ...

STRASBOURG, FRANCE – Today, the European Court of Human Rights issued a groundbreaking ruling in the Verein Klimaseniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland climate case. The Court found Switzerland in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights for failing to implement sufficient measures to combat climate change. 

Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) Senior Attorney Joie Chowdhury issued the following statement in Strasbourg, France:

“We expect this ruling to influence climate action and climate litigation across Europe and far beyond. Today’s historic judgment in Verein Klimaseniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland – the first ruling by an international human rights court on the inadequacy of States’ climate action – leaves no doubt: the climate crisis is a human rights crisis, and States have human rights obligations to act urgently and effectively and in line with the best available science to prevent further devastation and harm to people and the environment. The ruling reinforces the vital role of courts – both international and domestic – in holding governments to their legal obligations to protect human rights from environmental harm. It also affirms the power and courage of those who speak out and dare to demand a livable future for all.”

https://www.ciel.org/news/historic-climate-ruling-on-climate-justice/

Individual
|
      INTERPERSONAL    :     SCIENCES               
HUMANISTIC  --------------------------------------  MECHANISTIC      
 SOCIOLOGY  :    POLITICAL 
|
Group

Personal ethics

Envisioning of future lives

Anxiety in the here & now


Switzerland - Europe - The World

Yesterday - Now - Tomorrow

a LIFE TIME :: DEEP TIME


Public action

Vulnerable groups

Public activism


"In a landmark decision on one of three major climate cases, the first such rulings by an international court, the ECHR raised judicial pressure on governments to stop filling the atmosphere with gases that make extreme weather more violent.

The court’s top bench ruled that Switzerland had violated the rights of a group of older Swiss women to family life, but threw out a French mayor’s case against France and that of a group of young Portuguese people against 32 European countries." The Guardian


Wednesday, November 02, 2022

Three Norths <----> Souths too...?

Map norths converge on Dorset village in historic first (BBC News)

Ordnance Survey said the historic triple alignment made landfall in Langton Matravers near Swanage on Wednesday

"A small village has made map reading history and become the first place where true, magnetic and grid north have met at a single point.

According to the Ordnance Survey (OS) the historic triple alignment made landfall in Langton Matravers, near Swanage in Dorset, on Wednesday.

It will stay converged for three and a half years as it travels through the UK.

OS spokesman Mark Greaves said it was not related to climate change.

Records held by the OS, Britain's national mapping service, date back to the 1930s but Mr Greaves said this was the 'first time ever in British mapping history' the three norths had aligned.

'Magnetic north has a habit of wandering around, but this is unusual, it's not been in this orientation for hundreds of years,' he added" 

Continued...

Map image: http://www.itraveluk.co.uk/maps/england/4876/dorset/langton-matravers.html 

Previously: 'compass' & 'SOUTH'