"It's an equation Jim, but not as we know it!"

Silver (2013) in “The Signal and the Noise” refers to Drake’s equation, which has fascinated me since my teens. It is a formula that provides a framework for predicting the number of intelligent extraterrestrial species in the galaxy. Due to the high number of parameters and uncertainties that make up Drake's equation, Silver describes how the extreme range of results depend on the initial ‘inputs’. Given the variables presented they are estimates. I made a connection to Drake's work through BBC BASIC programming:

'The Nursing Process'
'Computer-Aided Patient Assessment'
'Blood Groups'
'Shades of Grey'

As time went on the simplicity of 'The NP' gave way to DIM arrays, which can provide data structures, and DEF PROC and DEF FN with parameters. 

The evidence for the elements of Drake's equation has made great strides since the 1990s. Despite the remaining uncertainties, Silver notes that Drake's equation has provided a useful lens for astronomers, plus - philosophers and the lay-person to think about life, the universe and everything.

Is there an implicit theory – an equation – in Hodges’ model?

See also: BBC BASIC

Previously: 'Sagan' : 'SETI' ; 'math' : 'Publication list (2024)'

Nate Silver (2013). “The Signal and the Noise”, Notes 89, London: Penguin. p.488.

Title Ack. the original is often misattributed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCARADb9asE

iii Book: 'Complexity in Health Care - A Paradigm Shift for Clinical Practice'

In reading this book and others on W2tQ, I must make the following points:

  * my need to remember the purely USA context (I have never worked there);
  * my healthcare, nursing, informatics experience is NHS-based;
  * this review (and others) is motivated by the project here - Hodges' model;
  * as a result, I will be quoting heavily, there is much to bring to your attention.

As noted in post (i) there is much to whet the appetite, a paradigm shift, 'comprehensive, collaborative, and integrated care' (p.11) certainly have become popular topics in the medical literature. Not only that but 'interpersonal and intersubjective treatment models' too (p.12).

The role of 'Case Managers' is highlighted, plus the Case Management Society of America, which is committed to:

•  Improved Consumer Health Outcomes
•  Professional Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
•  Cultural Competency and Humility
•  Advocacy for the Health Consumer
•  Integrity and Ethical Principles
•  Promoting Health Equity
•  Educating Case Managers Across the Care Continuum
•  Evidence-based Quality Care
•  Holistic, Compassionate Care
•  Fostering Communication and Collaboration
•  Advancing Research, Innovation, and Use of Technology
•  Fiscal Accountability [ https://cmsa.org/about/ ]

Whether the USA influences global trends in the structure and form of healthcare is another post, but there is a UK Case Management Society too: https://www.cmsuk.org. I can see a fit here [UK] with the development in recent decades on social prescribing. A different role, of course but part of a complex jig-saw.

As expected definitions are provided: 

'Roger Kathol has eloquently defined "health complexity" as "the interference with the achievement of expected or desired health and cost outcomes, due to the interaction of biological, psychological, social and health systems factors when patients are exposed to standard care delivered by their doctors" [1].' p.10. 

Roger G. Kathol, Rachel L. Andrew, Michelle Squire, Peter J. Dehnel (2018) The Integrated Case Management Manual: Value-Based Assistance to Complex Medical and Behavioral Health Patients. 2nd ed. Basel: Springer.

I can see where this definition comes from, but for me, it does not sit right. The problem when there is 'interference' is the assignment of responsibility and consequence that blame can follow. We've seen this, and in mental health too), with the recover model^. Some of the terms here may be completely innocuous politically speaking (which is the author's intent of course), but they can also be 'weighted'. Hence they can become concrete terms of judgement. Think about it: achievement, expected, desired, cost (and) outcomes, standard care, delivered (by doctors)? Or, am I over-thinking again.

In the margin I pencilled/drew:

individual

|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES

humanistic ------------------------------- mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL

|

group

Standard -	care
Other -	factors

As ever, the individual patient is our focus. The individual is supported (literally) by the social and political (infra-)structures that act as a scaffold, safety-net for most.

Time flies, I can't believe it was 2007 I posted 

Plush HQ foyer, shame about the mannequins!

I had this notion of life-size cardboard cutouts representing the average people who use a given health service provider (local, or not so local these days?). The data will be there in statistical annual reports. I'd noticed the displays - analogue and digital that greeted visitors at a local NHS Trust HQ. This would be the book's 'routine patients' who receive standard care. 

Chapter 3 introduces 'variables' which again is brief, but imporant as variables recur throughout the book. The 'Clinical Field' is first outlined, as in:

• Sources of clinically relevant factors;
• Dynamic factors;
• and: Variables representing contributions from practitioner(s).

Abstract variables are differentiated from those that are concrete. It's reassuring to read there is no true simplicity within the clinical field, and the author's goal is to 'unpack complexity so it remains as true to life as possible, not just manageable conceptually.' p.18.

Frankel et al. are primed to go beyond this. Maths, as in statistical procedures are one tool. Chapter 4 adds to this with a theoretical model to guide clinical understanding of patients with biopsychosocial complexities, the foundations of our paradigm shift. p.23.

If you have an understanding of Hodges' model you can picture my response to this. But, staying grounded, the whole book and paradigm shift represents a form of scientific "emergence". It is frustrating that literature searches fail to pick out Hodges' model. 

Frustrating too as reading of "awe", also on page 23, I have experienced this many times (over say 1977 - 2019 ...). So, I held on to my dummy (pacifier!?) and read on ...  

Chapter 4 Technical Considerations is one the longest and contributes all of Part III. Here you can read about science, measurement, statistics, empirical, operational definitions, intelligence, reliability. I often see a chapter, book section as a useful primer for students and the same applies here; with inter-judge realiability, validity, control, null hypothesis, statistical methods and much more. Reference to mathematics (axiomatic too) had me hoping for more. I picked out Structural Equation Modelling:

 'We would also like to suggest that following the steps involved in "structural equation modeling" (path analysis) is a good way of conceptualizing and reasoning about complex clinical variables altogether. For example, constructing a clinical model informally (intuitively, loosely from data) and thinking about (diagramming) how the variables involved may moderate and mediate each other can be a useful activity for clarifying the nature and requirements of a complicated clinica1 situation. 
 

 In simplest terms, an independent variable is the causal or influential variable that impacts and effects the dependent variable. A moderating variable is a dichotomy, and refers to two comparison groups (e.g., male/female; passed/fail; religious/nonreligious; tall/short; high versus low socioeconomic status) that display significantly different degrees of magnitude on a correlated relationship. For example, the relationship between a specific treatment for a medical disorder and treatment outcomes may be moderated by socioeconomic differences. The treatment outcome relationship may be stronger and more positive for individuals with elevated socioeconomic standing who therefore have better support systems and access to medical professionals, and fewer economic stressors.' p.36.

I think from this the authors might be sympathetic to giving 'life' to the POLITICAL domain and Hodges' model; after all it lives in people's daily experience - acknowledged or not. The book's structure works thus far: Chapter 5 Nature-Nurture (n.b. no escape!)  and the Epigenome. The structure - flow - works, as at just over four pages, it begs further reading (beyond the listed references). I still have my copy of:

Fritjof Capra and Pier Luigi Luisi (2014) The Systems View of Life - A Unifying Vision. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

 

With the epigenome being added to the 'patient complexity equation' in chapter 5, I wondered whether this was predictable, a promise, or a tease?

individual

|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES

humanistic ------------------------------- mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL

|

group

nature?	NATURE?
NURTURE?	nurture?

 

Previously: 'complex' : 'nature' : 'mental health' : 'person(-centred)'

More to follow ...

^Jones P. (2014) Using a conceptual framework to explore the dimensions of recovery and their relationship to service user choice and self-determination. International Journal of Person Centered Medicine. Vol 3, No 4, (2013) pp.305-311. 

Steven A. Frankel, Steven D. Thurber, James A. Bourgeois (2023) Complexity in Health Care: A Paradigm Shift for Clinical Practice. Cham. Switzerland: Springer. ISBN: 978303114948.

ii Book: 'Complexity in Health Care - A Paradigm Shift for Clinical Practice'

I didn't have time to finish reading Frankel et al. before WCCS26. This book has an index which was very useful, to efficiently check certain points. It is amazing the number of books without an index.

Chapter 1 is 'Guiding Principles' and links really well with the index. At two pages it is brief and yet also constitutes Part 1. 

Part II The Clinical Situation, continues an introductory thread. Chapter 2 The “Clinical Situation”: An Introduction to Its Structure and Complexity is what attracted me to the book. At five pages, there was more in this vein. I looked ahead and found that the chapters all seemed short. Checking the book's web page, 50 chapters in 270 pages, so just over 5 pages and well referenced too.

Initially, you might feel short-changed, of course, I didn't with a review copy. But don't worry. You are in patient- person-centred hands here. Sometimes content matters. The three authors work and are researchers in psychiatry. For me, the guiding principles and part II provide a handshake with the index. The person here then, is given a literary hug. Immediately, there is a link between the variables of care and the structure of a case (or caseness). 

'But importantly that "structure" is dynamic changing over time. We classify variables as "clinical" as they are brought into play for the purpose of treatment, i.e., the goal of healing.

The clinician is not just challenged to unravel this complicated situation but also to represent the patient accurately, including his or her "human" elements as represented by temperament and personal attitudes. What are the patient's essential needs. tolerances, preferences? Yet, there is even more to know about each patient. Does she have children? What is her financial status, her ethnicity? What are her attitudes about medical professionals. Does she believe in medicine, or even in science?

Beware! None of these factors are dispensable when trying to understand a patient. Just try to leave out a few and you are left with a gutted rendering of that person, not a living human being.' p.7. 

(and continued in fragmented form below ...)

individual

|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES

humanistic ------------------------------- mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL

|

group

'The result even when this level of detail, is available may still be an anemic version of the patient.    Traditionally a medical patient is subjected to an extensive workup that includes a mental status examination, in addition to a detailed past and present history, ...	... and an extensive "review of (organ) systems.
Now add the multiplicity of problems, psychiatric and systemic medical, from which the patient suffers. ...	Multiplicity may include systemic medical, psychiatric, social, financial, and lack of access to health providers.' p.7.

'From this description it seems logical that complex patients presenting with mixed medical-psychiatric disorders be managed with an ongoing collaborative approach delivered by a multispecialty team. Included may be a primary care physician, psychiatrist, and/or psychotherapists. One or more of the collaborating professionals may be a nurse practitioner and/or a physician's assistant.' p.7

I will return to the 'logical' in the final quoted paragraph above. The author's declare their intent from the outset, and by the literature-to-date they achieve this (may I please add? 'in spades!').

 

Over the years and as raised on W2tQ, several colleagues and contacts have asked "Where is the book on Hodges' model?" Not to sound weird, but this book asks that same question through some challenges to the usual 'medical' text. There are several lessons to take away here, even if only to keep a dream alive. While the physical size of a textbook, its practical appeal and stance makes it appear as something to pop in your top shirt/jacket pocket. A pocket guide: quite an impression just 10-20 pages in, and in this digital age.

 

As you would expect from mental health practitioners - psychiatrists - psychotherapists, interpersonal, subjective-objective and intersubjective factors are integral to how complexity is defined and measured. In Chapter 2, pp.11-12 there is mention and reference to the Value-Based Integrated Case Management Complexity Assessment Grid:

Specker, S., Andrew, R., Drexler, E., Koithan, E., Thurber, S., & Frankel, S. (2026). Development of the Self-Administered Health Complexity Screening Instrument. Professional case management, 31(2), 81–89. https://doi.org/10.1097/NCM.0000000000000845

I will check this instrument as I complete this review. As noted on April 9th this book was published in 2023, so I remain grateful to Daniela and colleagues at SpringerNature for the review copy (which also enjoyed WCCS!).

Previously: 'complex' : 'holistic bandwidth' : 'mental health' : 'person(-centred)'

More to follow ...

Steven A. Frankel, Steven D. Thurber, James A. Bourgeois (2023) Complexity in Health Care: A Paradigm Shift for Clinical Practice. Cham. Switzerland: Springer. ISBN: 978303114948.