Martha's Rule revisited ...

Last year in May, I posted about Martha's Rule. A year on, there is an update:

Evidence suggests Martha’s Rule is saving lives

'To support learning and assess the impact the programme is having, we regularly collect data from sites where Martha’s Rule is in place.

Early evidence suggests Martha’s Rule is saving lives and helping thousands of patients benefit from changes to their care.

Data from September 2024 to February 2026 shows 12,301 Martha’s Rule calls were made, with the highest proportion of calls (72%) made via the family/carer escalation process. 4,047 Martha’s Rule escalation calls (33%) related to acute deterioration.

Of those, 2,310 calls required changes in treatment. This includes 524 calls which resulted in transfers of care to high dependency or intensive care units, enhanced levels of care, tertiary centres or referral/transfer to specialists or a specialist ward. Other changes in treatment (1,786) did not require transfer of a patient from a ward in-patient setting. This includes the introduction of a new medication such as an antibiotic to treat infection, investigations including scans and procedural interventions including going to theatre.'

Source:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/patient-safety/marthas-rule/#implementingmarthasrule

individual

|

INTERPERSONAL : SCIENCES

humanistic ------------------------------- mechanistic

SOCIOLOGY : POLITICAL

|

group

"Not herself ..."   Listening  Martha	1,700 NHS staff Taking action escalation
Mills parents, guardians, friends & family   Familly input - Multidisciplinary Team   Teamwork	Martha's Rule

My prompt:
Koronka, P. '1,700 NHS staff use Martha's Rule to raise the alarm'. The Times, 1 May, 2026, p.6.

Previously: 'intuition' : 'observation' : 'listen' : 'communication' (Never as an afterthought.)

ii WCCS26: World Conference on Complex Systems 20-22nd April

Day 1

Plenary Talk: Reda Benkirane - Lost in Complexity: Welcome to the Real World

A first slide considered Abraham Maslow's book The Psychology of Science and his thought on the "law of the instrument". Maslow's hierarchy of needs is a key primer for new students to many disciplines, including nursing, and psychology. The purpose of Benikrane's focus on instruments concerns the emergence of civilisation and roles of agriculture, and war in the rise of community at several scales from village, to cities, states and nations. In terms of flow the slides highlighted the next speaker Peter Turchin's END TIMES, and two books by Johann Chapoutot, LES IRRESPONSABLES, and FREE TO OBEY.

In response to the slide with Einstein's -

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them":

- may I please class 'health - care' as a world? The thought that the medical, bio-medical, and bio-psycho-social encourages, sees enacted, and sustained a : is this fit for the problems of the 21st century. I like the slide's heading 'Beyond Complexity'. Such is the pace of change, which is labelled 'progress' that each one of us wakes up momentarily stupified and lost in complexity.

Keynote Speaker: Peter Turchin - The Great Holocene
Transformation: What Complexity Science Tells Us About The Evolution of Complex Societies

Turchin's keynote reminded me of Jared Diamond's book Guns, Germs and Steel. Reading GGS I realised there is more to 'axes' than I thought, especially from the individual to collective scales. It appears that whichever label - academia, research or education - you would like to apply, they all need a conceptual framework. Just as, individually, we all need a model of self, others and the world. This was a marvellous journey, through millennia of humanities' evolution, social, and political development, all realised through complexity. While attractors are to the fore, architecture and archaeology are regular distractors for me. Reading Holocene then had me hooked. 

Star Maker

A fellow delegate and speaker I dined with a few times encouraged me to read 'END TIMES'. I will seek it out later this year, (the next Hay-on-Wye visit?). Turchin is seeking to account for how human societies have reached their current state of organisation. The role of self-protection, seeking food, shelter, co-operation are all factors, with the emergence of religions, and agriculture. Several theories to date were covered [including, cultural multilevel selection, see Wilson et al. (2023)], plus a major project on cultural evolution: The Seshat: Global History Databank. For all the current loss and misery, conflict has paid a major role in cultural and political development. The prefix 'macro' features here. There was a social scale (people): FROM 10s - in foraging bands through TO 100,000,000s large nation-states. Mention of levels of scale, took me back to the work of Mario Bunge. The application of the Hertzsprung-Russell 'main sequence' (H-R) diagram is a great idea. I think Olaf Stapleton, author of Star Maker would have approved. 

This itself, for me, is reason enough to read Turchin. There is evolutionary biochemistry too, which is required in terms of a systems account. Is there a reflection of a main sequence construct between the SOCIOLOGICAL and SCIENCES domain of Hodges' model? 

 It is incredible the way new findings are regularly pushing even further the dates of human milestones stepping-stones. Perhaps we should always view progress in this way, and enjoy the 'moment'. There is still the puzzle of ultrasociality, and how to explain it? Turchin is seeking a mathematical history, with a journal Cliodynamics. There is another SF reference here, in Asimov's psychohistory in the Foundation books, but with less emphasis upon maths. This is encouraging for Hodges' model, and the inevitable transdisciplinary approach these questions demand.

More to follow ...

D.S. Wilson, G. Madhavan, M.J. Gelfand, S.C. Hayes, P.W.B. Atkins, & R.R. Colwell, Multilevel cultural evolution: From new theory to practical applications, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 120 (16) e2218222120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218222120 (2023).

100,000 signatures to win a parliamentary debate about the ownership of the water industry

INDIVIDUAL

|

     INTERPERSONAL    :     SCIENCES               

HUMANISTIC --------------------------------------  MECHANISTIC      

SOCIOLOGY  :   POLITICAL 

|

GROUP

'I feel thirsty!' 'It's really hot, let's have a swim!'	... Water ...
Public services Public health	I need 100,000 signatures to win a parliamentary debate about the ownership of the water industry. Do your thing internet.https://t.co/kZz1cXBtz3 pic.twitter.com/qWaQPmPEHv — Feargal Sharkey (@Feargal_Sharkey) April 29, 2026

My source: 
https://x.com/Feargal_Sharkey

Previously: 'water' : 'pollution'

Book: "Beyond Belief - How Evidence Shows What Really Works"

Beyond Belief

INDIVIDUAL

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     INTERPERSONAL    :     SCIENCES               

HUMANISTIC --------------------------------------  MECHANISTIC      

SOCIOLOGY  :   POLITICAL 

|

GROUP

BEYOND BELIEF	How Evidence Shows What Really Works

Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works is a book by science journalist Helen Pearson, published by Princeton University Press.

 

My source: 
Pearson, H. Trials that quietly changed our lives, Life&Arts, FTWeekend, 18-19 April, 2026. p.2 

Previously: 'belief' : 'evidence' : 'information disorder' 

Invite to an In-person Interactive Workshop to Advance Action on SDoH [Geneva]

Advancing the Social Determinants of Health during the World Health Assembly

Dear Colleague

Is it possible to share in HIFA Network the following announcement?

Thanks a lot for your precious help

Dr Eric Comte Director of the Geneva Health Forum https://genevahealthforum.com

HIFA profile: Eric Comte is Executive Director, Geneva Health Forum, External Affairs Directorate, Geneva University Hospitals. eric.comte AT unige.ch

Bonjour,

We are pleased to invite you to take part in an interactive workshop dedicated to advancing action on the social determinants of health.

Forty years after the Ottawa Charter, there is broad consensus on the importance of health promotion and the determinants of health. Yet, translating this knowledge into effective policies and concrete action remains a major challenge. In a context marked by climate change, growing inequalities, rapid urbanisation and geopolitical instability, the need for more integrated, preventive and equity-oriented approaches has never been greater.

Building on this observation, this session will bring together, NGO, practitioners, policymakers and experts to move beyond general principles and focus on what really enables implementation in practice. Through the exchange of real-world experiences and case studies, participants will collectively identify actionable lessons, key barriers, and practical ways forward.

The expected outcome is a set of clear, operational messages to strengthen collaboration across sectors and support the implementation of strategies addressing the social determinants of health in diverse contexts. The session will also provide an opportunity to identify concrete avenues for further work, including potential projects that the Geneva Health Forum could support.

The workshop will take place on Tuesday 19 May from 9.00 to 12.30 at Campus Biotech in Geneva.

We would be delighted to count on your participation and active contribution to this important discussion.

👉 More information and registration on the link : https://worldhealthassembly2026.genevahealthforum.com/rethinking-determinants-of-health-in-todays-global-context-from-knowledge-to-action/

Space is limited, so only register if you really want to attend.

Registration is free but required so we can print badges and organize the workshop.

Link with the World Health Assembly discussions

This workshop is directly aligned with the strategic discussions taking place at the World Health Assembly, particularly in relation to document EB158/27 on well-being and health promotion. This report highlights the growing recognition of health promotion and the social determinants of health as essential pillars of public health, while also emphasizing the persistent gaps in implementation and the need to strengthen multisectoral action, governance, and measurable impact.

In particular, it calls for better integration of health promotion across the full continuum of policies and systems, stronger cross-sector collaboration, and a renewed focus on addressing structural determinants of health, including through more effective implementation mechanisms and improved coordination across actors.

Our session contributes to this agenda by focusing on practical experiences and implementation challenges, with the aim of identifying concrete, actionable lessons that can help accelerate the translation of global commitments into real-world action. In doing so, it also seeks to feed into ongoing reflections at the global level and to support more effective implementation of the priorities discussed at the World Health Assembly.

You are receiving this message because you are a member of the community HIFA - Healthcare Information For All.

View this contribution on the web site

MAACAL: Statues Also Breathe

Catharsis Arts Foundation in collaboration with Obafemi-Awolowo University and 108 students, 2022

This exhibition presents a collaboration between Obafemi-Awolowo University, 108 students from all across Nigeria, and the families of the Chibok girls who were kidnapped by Boko Haram in 2014. 

Inspired by the iconic terracotta heads of Ife, it was initiated by artists Prune Nourry and Ade Bantu and seeks to raise awareness on the plight of the missing girls, and to highlight the diversity of Nigerian culture. . . .

On Thursday I visited MAACAL - Museum of African Contemporary Art Al Maaden, an art gallery  I first read about in FTWeekend Life&Arts, not long after first visiting Marrakech in 2023.

The main exhibit presents itself straight away after entering:

Statues Also Breathe, exhibition view, Art Twenty One, Lagos, Nigeria
 ©Dohdohndawa Photography/DDD Studios

A short but touching film in the gallery bears testimony to the fact many 'school girls' are still absent. Repetition is standard method in design. In today's manufactured world you might think what is so special about this? Until you are there physically, and walk through them. You see each one, a who: unique, an individual, a person taken away from where they belong.

As a white man from NW England, there was a moment when I realised: I was on the same continent where this had happened and is ongoing. Searching Youtube reveals other related videos concerning the exhibitions. It's strange watching them again as a check on their availability. A short video of an event to launch three new installations earlier this year is worth watching. Unfortunately, my phone failed until I got back to Marrakech, so I've no photos. I've three works in mind though.

I walked there, and back after trying to sort a taxi with a lovely couple from Germany and their son. Some taxis are limited to carry three persons. This is what arrived. The sun, even behind clouds that day, and flights taking off from the airport helped my sense of direction. The girls, seeking an education, did not have these means of navigation.

The garden at MAACAL was small but lovely. I hope to return one day, and well before then . . .

In Marrakech how can I forget "A is for ..."!

The Arabian world gave us algebra and algorithm and much more besides, as star gazers quickly find. There are many beautiful Arabic names for stars. At the UM6P Conference venue there were some wall displays, highlighting the major contribution of Al Khawarizmi:

Earlier this month I picked up The New York Review of Books, spotting a review of four books (2009-2025) on mathematics, including algebra by Paul Lockhart.

Dan Rockmore. In Defence of Algebra, The New York Review of Books. April 9th, 2026, Vol. LXXIII, No. 6. pp.28-30.
https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2026/04/09/in-defense-of-algebra-paul-lockhart/

Picking up sticks: when axes matter ii

This past week at WCCS26, I've put Hodges' model itself on the work-, or more properly the inspection bench. Now, referring back to the - 'Our broken sticks' c/o Roger Lewin "Complexity: life at the edge of chaos" post, perhaps a theatre table is required. That is, as I try to examine the model, take it apart, have a look at the bits - as far as they are. And, what about the question posed in the above post?

'If we take the axes of Hodges' model, and break them at twenty-five points, I wonder what we end-up (or start) with?'

If there are twenty-six sticks, well, amongst other things - we've made quite a mess. But, there's more going on.

There may be some kind of idealised symmetry, or is it equality between the necessary, or projected length of the I-G axis. That is, as it extends for the INTERPERSONAL and SOCIOLOGICAL domains. But is there equivalence, in a default sense, for the SCIENCE and POLITICAL domains? Or am I (once again) overthinking? If medicine, health and by implication social care are bio-psycho-social, then surely we have a structural problem? Not only that, but we see a boundary, partition ... axis - in action. In Hodges' model the axes have two parts, two sides, so they are in effect composite. If the bio-psycho-social model is true, in whatever senses we wish to declare, derive or pursue in research (the literature, logic, practice, political expediency, or realism ...), then the group axis is incomplete. 

Hodges' model: Structure and Content - Axes and Domains

Is this literally why health care systems are so difficult to design, develop, establish and sustain? Think about that too, please. Is this why we as individuals rely on a functioning (caring) society and political systems? Is this why health care systems can suddenly be faced with collapse, as geopolitics has revealed. Vulnerability, becomes more than an individual characteristic and experience; when nations are dependent upon others for their funding, organisation, logistics, personnel, continuity and more. As a result, many understandably want to break with this socio-political and coloanial legacy.

Is there something in the sentence above in italics, that we can actually utilise to help define the foundation of Hodges' model? Again, not wanting to sound grandiose, but is there an axiom hidden in there? Even as 'health' is the inevitable election issue. The irony of this! Even if the politics of health and health in politics is not so much hidden as often denied. History reveals the influence of triage on the battlefield on the emergence of medicine and surgery. The future is here now. There is a political fight to follow for health in all its manifest forms. So here is another post to return to.

ERCIM News No. 144 Special theme: "Advancing Open Science"

 

Dear ERCIM News reader,

ERCIM News 144 is now online [in PDF also]! This issue is dedicated to Advancing Open Science. Open Science is becoming an essential part of the European research landscape, shaping how knowledge, data, software, infrastructures and results are shared, reused and sustained.

The contributions collected in this special theme offer a cross-section insight into the current European effort to make research more open, transparent, collaborative and reusable.

This special theme was coordinated by our guest editors Leonardo Candela (CNR-ISTI) and Roberto Di Cosmo (Inria and University Paris Cité).

Includes: [PJ]

Rethinking Researcher Profiles in the Research Assessment Transition Era: The OpenAIRE Approach. pp.9-10.

P. Manghi, et al., “OpenAIRE Graph Dataset (10.6.0) [Data set]”, OpenAIRE.
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17725827

BibTexViz: Visualizing Research Productivity with Open Science Data. pp.10-12.

D. Hicks, et al., “The Leiden Manifesto for research metrics”, Nature 520, 429-431, 2015.
https://doi.org/10.1038/520429a
T. Munzner, “Visualization Analysis and Design”, CRC Press, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1201/b17511
M. Zaumanis, “Research Data Visualization and Scientific Graphics: For Papers, Presentations and Proposals”, Peer Recognized, 2021.

MOEBA-BIO: An Open and Extensible Framework for Evolutionary Biclustering in Biomedicine. pp.17-19.

Co-Creation as Infrastructure for Open Science Data Spaces. pp.24-25.

A Osterheider, et al., “Conceptualization of the Understanding of Participation and Co-Creation in Interdisciplinary Research Groups developing Digital Health Technology: An Exploratory Study: Conceptualization of the Understanding of Participation and Co-Creation”, Mensch und Computer 2023, 534–538, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1145/3603555.3608572

LICORICE: Deploying Privacy-Enhancing Technologies for Europe’s Digital Sovereignty. pp.30-31.

D4Science: An Enabling Infrastructure for Open Science. pp.38-39.

D. Schaap, M. Assante, et al., “Blue-Cloud: Exploring and demonstrating the potential of Open Science for ocean sustainability,” in Proc. 6th Int. Workshop on Metrology for the Sea; Learning to Measure Sea Health Parameters (MetroSea), IEEE, 2022, pp. 198–202, doi:10.1109/MetroSea55331.2022.9950819.

Next Issue - No. 145

Special Theme: E-values: Statistical Testing for the 21st Century

Call for Contributions

Thanks for reading ERCIM News. If you’ve enjoyed this issue, please feel free to forward it to colleagues who may find it interesting and help us reach even more readers by sharing it on LinkedIn.

If you’re considering an even deeper partnership, advertising in ERCIM News not only helps sustain our publication but also puts your message in front of an expert, highly qualified audience.

[ Posted from Marrakech 17th-27th April ] 

BCS SPECIALIST GROUP ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (SGAI) - Ethical and Legal Aspects of AI

The next in our series of free evening virtual seminars will be on Wednesday May 6th from 6 p.m. to 7.30 p.m. (UK time). The topic will be Ethical and Legal Aspects of AI.

 

The speakers will be

• Prof. Bernd Stahl (University of Nottingham) on 'Artificial Intelligence for a Better Future - An Ecosystem Perspective on the Ethics of AI'
• Prof. Dr. Griet Verhenneman (Ghent University, Belgium) on 'Patch Day in Brussels: How the EU AI Act ran into the unusual scenario of reform prior to application' and
• Dr Uchenna Nnawuchi (Sheffield University) on 'The “Why” being Algorithmic Decision Making: Explainability as the Backbone of AI Governance'.

The seminar will be chaired by Dr. Carlisle George (Middlesex University).

 

The virtual seminar series is free and open to all. For further details and for the zoom link to use go to https://bcs-sgai.org/seminars/2026-05-06/.

 

Details of future SGAI events will be placed on the website at https://bcs-sgai.org as they become available. To register to be sent information about future SGAI events by email go to https://www.bcs-sgai.org/register/.

 

Max Bramer

Chair, BCS SGAI

----------------------------------------------------

Chair, British Computer Society Specialist Group on Artificial Intelligence

Emeritus Professor, School of Computing, University of Portsmouth, UK
http://www.maxbramer.org

My source: BCS SGAI list

WCCS26: World Conference on Complex Systems 20-22nd April

It was good that today I could relax a little sooner than I expected with my presentation delivered over lunch time instead of 1730. To recap, at the 6th edition conference theme of:

“Navigating Contemporary Complexity:
Transdisciplinary Approaches to Economic, Social, Political, and Environmental Challenges”

- my talk (I added "Hodges' model" in the slides):

'Hodges’ model: PRESENTING a UNIVERSAL and SIMPLE CONCEPTUAL WORKBENCH to SITUATE and ENCOMPASS COMPLEXITY'

This after arriving back from a conference dinner near Marrakech at 0100, but the event at Chez Ali was different and most enjoyable. 

I'm conscious that unlike other speakers I (still!) did not have 'data' to share and discuss. Equations have been necessary over the first two days. But overall all sessions have proved accessible. From comments received Hodges' model was understood and deemed relevant. One delegate noted how the visual nature of Hodges' model was apparent, the illustrations revealed the model more clearly than a verbal description the evening before.

There were two questions. I eventually recalled awareness of Franco Basaglia, the Italian pioneer of community mental health and mental health law in Italy. Another questions concerned were I though the arts, drama and culture sit, or fit in Hodges' model? I suggested a search of the blog for posts tagged 'art', 'theatre', or 'culture'; with a warning that it can be a bit of a rabbit-hole.

Discussion, in-sessions and outside have proved refreshing, and not just as a welcome change from 'world news'. There were reminders too of early career researchers, professionals, and policymakers and the need to phone home.

While I pack for a transfer to Marrakech tomorrow afternoon, I will reflect and look to add more here.

In adition to data, I need new angles so I am not self-plagiarizing; hence the attempt to see Hodges' model as a mathematical object.

Many thanks to the WCCS26 Committee for being able to participate and share this model made in the 20th century for the challenges of the 21st.

More to follow and in the meantime, you can read the programme yourself.

c/o HIFA "Help Shape Global Guidance for Rural & Remote Health"

Guidance on Evidence-Based Healthcare Strategies 
to Serve Rural & Remote Communities

Rural and remote communities are not peripheral — they are central to the fabric of our societies.

Through the Communities of Practice for Remote and Rural Health, in collaboration with Rural Wonca, The National Center for Rural Health Professions, Rural Coordination Centre of British Columbia, and Rural Doctors Network, we have developed a draft Guidance on Evidence-Based Healthcare Strategies to Serve Rural and Remote Communities.

Now, we are inviting the wider TUFH Network to help strengthen it.

This draft Guidance: 

• Brings a rural lens to global health systems 
• Focuses on access as the defining challenge in rural health 
• Addresses funding, workforce, infrastructure, culture, and equity 
• Recognizes socioeconomic overlays and preventable disease burdens 
• Highlights vulnerable groups, including Indigenous communities, women, the elderly, and people with Disabilities
• Draws on global case studies from Canada, Australia, South Africa, Thailand, Ethiopia, and beyond
• Proposes actionable, adaptable strategies grounded in evidence and expert consensus

Importantly, the paper intentionally shifts away from a deficit narrative toward one that recognizes rural strengths, resilience, and community-driven solutions.

We Need Your Input

We are seeking feedback that helps us ensure this Guidance is: 

• Globally relevant across diverse rural contexts 
• Practical and implementable 
• Inclusive of LMIC realities 
• Clear in its recommendations 
• Strengthened by lived experience and frontline practice

Through the consultation survey, we are specifically inviting your reflections on: 

• Clarity of definitions (e.g., rurality, generalist workforce, access)
• Gaps in evidence or missing priority issues 
• Feasibility of implementation strategies 
• Cultural responsiveness and community engagement 
• Additional case studies or models to include 
• Areas needing further research or clarification

Your expertise — whether as a policymaker, academic, practitioner, community leader, or advocate — is essential.

We request your input in any of the following forms by April 30th.

Specific Feedback Forms (Deadline for Feedback is April 30th)

Access Draft Paper 📑<https://thenetworktufh.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=742357d7350b0bf9f9591c8ab&id=2d170bf5cf&e=95c553a647>

1. If you have any suggestions on specific content, additional references to cite existing or new information, or other updates, please fill out this form:

Guidance Document - Content Body – Fill out form 📝<https://thenetworktufh.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=742357d7350b0bf9f9591c8ab&id=ff3084197e&e=95c553a647>

2. If you have any specific information that can be used to include solutions and successes that could better reflect rural realities for each of the document sections, please fill out this form:

Guidance on evidence-based healthcare strategies to serve rural and remote communities. – Fill out form 📝<https://thenetworktufh.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=742357d7350b0bf9f9591c8ab&id=392220cca9&e=95c553a647>

3. If you have specific lessons from regions that can be included in the Guidance Document, please fill out this form:

Guidance Document - Lessons Learned from Different Regions – Fill out form 📝
<https://thenetworktufh.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=742357d7350b0bf9f9591c8ab&id=de2ab21951&e=95c553a647>

4. If you have specific evidence that can be used to describe the relative contribution of patient factors and access factors in rural disease, please fill out this form:

Evidence-based relative contribution of patient and access factors for rural disease – Fill out form 📝<https://thenetworktufh.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=742357d7350b0bf9f9591c8ab&id=3d8527953c&e=95c553a647> 

Communities of Practice

Why This Matters

Health disparities in rural and remote communities are rarely about incidence alone. They are about access, equity, and systems design.

This Guidance aims to support: 

• Policymakers designing rural-responsive systems 
• Health workforce planners 
• Universities and training institutions 
• Community health leaders 
• Global partners advancing Universal Health Coverage

Join us at TUFH 2026 in Manila, Philippines
https://tufh2026.com/

We look forward to welcoming you for TUFH 2026! 

If you need assistance with registration or have any other questions, please contact -
secretariat AT thenetworktufh.org

Join The Network: Towards Unity For Health (TUFH): https://thenetworktufh.org/

You are receiving this e-mail from the Office of the Secretariat from The Network: Towards Unity For Health

Our mailing address is: The Network: Toward Unity for Health (TUFH) 970 Sproul Road Bryn Mawr, PA 19010

My source:  David Cawthorpe via HIFA -
HIFA profile: David Cawthorpe is Adjunct Assistant Professor at the University of Calgary, Canada. His professional interests include: Human Development, Developmental Psychopathology, and Delivery of low bandwidth medical education curriculum. cawthord AT ucalgary.ca

'Our broken sticks' c/o Roger Lewin "Complexity: life at the edge of chaos"

Chapter 4 Explosions and Extinctions

  'Is Stu being led astray? I asked. "There's something called the broken stick model in statistics," said Dave. In this trick, a random number generator "breaks'' a stick a hundred inches long at twenty-five points, and produces twenty-six short sticks. Measure them, count the number that are one inch long, the number two inches long, and so on, and draw a histogram. You get a skewed distribution, toward the short end, just like many natural phenomena, including the distribution of sizes of U.S. cities, for instance. "One thing you have to remember about extinctions is that some species are more likely than others to die out, just because they exist as small, isolated populations,'' explained Dave. "This sort of statistical quirk can skew your results, easily." So, you would be suspicious of anything that looks like a power law? "I would, because it's common, just in the nature of statistics. It may tell you that a system is poised at a critical point, whatever that means, but it may not. In any case, when Stu says that the curve he gets from my data is close to a power law, he knows that there are many other mathematical models that could fit equally well."
  Clearly, there were many reasons to be cautious about drawing the conclusion that global ecosystems are poised at the edge of chaos, using just the extinction data.' p.80.

 

Hodges' model: Axes (structure) and Domains (content)

If we take the axes of Hodges' model, and break them at twenty-five points, I wonder what we end-up (or start) with?

 

Lewin, Roger. (1993) Complexity: life at the edge of chaos. London : Phoenix [Dent, 1993] ISBN: 1857990285.

Previously: 'complexity' : 'system'

Ann Hutchinson Guest (Obit.), 'Authority on dance notation ... '

'Although there are many forms of dance notation going back to Pierre Beauchamp's system for Baroque dance in the 1680s, Nijinsky had developed his own cryptic version. Ann Hutchinson Guest first tried to reconstruct his work in 1956 after the choreogapher's widow, Romola, gave her his notes. "I spent years trying to work it out," she said, adding with a laugh: And I'm supposed to be the leading authority on dance notation in the world. She told how Nijinsky had revised his notes many times, often contradicting himself. 'We couldn't get anywhere. Romolo was furious. She said it was taking much too long."

    Hutchinson Guest studied dozens of different dance notation systems, translating many of them into Labanotation, a system developed in the 1920s by Rudolf von Laban who was a central figure in European modern dance. According to a  press report in 1954: "The printed Labanotation page looks like a combination of hieroglyphs, pictographs, Morse dots-and-dashes, đoodles, and a musie score turned on edge" 

    It was not until 1980 that she and Claudia Jeschke, a dance historian, succeeded in cracking Nijinsky's code after finding a copy of his annotated score in the British Library.'

Register, The Times.

My source: Ann Hutchinson Guest (Obit.), 'Authority on dance notation known for reconstructing Vaslav Nijinsky's scandalous ballet, L'Après-midi d'un faune'. Register, The Times. 20 April, 2022, p.48.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/obituaries/article/ann-hutchinson-guest-obituary-hkw8z88ns

INDIVIDUAL

|

     INTERPERSONAL    :     SCIENCES               

HUMANISTIC --------------------------------------  MECHANISTIC      

SOCIOLOGY  :   POLITICAL 

|

GROUP

abstraction representation interpretation observation - translation code - formalism	body (bodies) symbols - forms dance choreography movement - 4D - time
group ensemble 'anthropological composition?' 'diagnostic grouping'? social - cultural category . . .	'collective power & attention  evinced as time' 'The stage: the space for health'^

Hutchinson Guest in 1956
 Source: The Times.

'Dance has been called moving architecture, a truth which the complexities of contemporary choreography may mask. Not only does the dancer's body form shapes and groups of dancers form moving or static designs, but also group arrangements carve up the stage space, establishing areas of open as well as enclosed space which are significant in their changes and contrasting effects.

While the rccording of movement on paper-dance notation-does not look like movement (disregarding primitive stick figure drawings), there is an "architecture" in the sequence of graphic symbols used to record dance patterns. Over the centuries many different devices have been used to capture dance steps on paper. What are the elements that have to be represented?

The process of dance notation requires reducing four-dimensional movement (time being the fourth dimension) to a two-dimensional surface. The parts of the body in action have to be defined, as does the form of movement involved (flexion, extension, rotation, directional placement) and the duration of each in relation to the overall time structure. In group dances the relationship of dancers to one another must be determined and recorded, as well as their location on stage and their paths of travel. In a dance score each performer is like a small orchestra-arms, legs, head, torso, etc. in motion-this is then multiplied by the number of dancers who are performing individual sequences.'

Guest, A. H. (1990). Dance Notation. Perspecta, 26, 203–214. https://doi.org/10.2307/1567163

^Health is always performed in the political domain, make no mistake (excuses, or exceptions). It is not:

1. Acknowledged, masked - covered by the 'set design' (see #2 below);
2. Implied in the medical, biomedical, bio-psycho-social model;
3. The intermission is neither the time, or place, to reflect upon and critique the political in health :: health in politics.

See also: https://archives.nypl.org/dan/19629

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Hutchinson_Guest

Previously: 'dance' : 'architecture' : 'movement'  : 'notation'

Book: 'Logic on the Track of Social Change'

When I walked into Lancaster Univ. library in February, I had no idea I was being followed.

From the maths shelves, the lights switching on as you progress, I decided to walk across to the more familiar realm of sociology. Looking for something, it was nice to see the parity in lighting, even as my struggle for mathematical enlightenment continues.

Logic on the Track of Social Change    

I do use the e-library, and other e-resources, but sometimes real shelves and varying levels of mustiness (remember the 'new acquisitions' - fewer these days?) invite a bit of serendipity. Suddenly, over my shoulders, the stranger,  pointed (with four arms of course). Was it my shadow? Or, was it my unconscious that 'read': LOGIC and TRACK and SOCIAL CHANGE, on the spine of -

David Braybrooke, Bryson Brown & Peter K. Schotch (eds.), Logic on the Track of Social Change, Oxford University Press. 1995?

In the early decades of health informatics, there was much talk - and still is(?) - of  'languages for health', even languages for nursing. Coding and classification systems were constantly developing, as posted here, but while physical diagnoses were the driver, the psychosocial dimensions of person - patienthood proved more nebulous. DSM is still subject much debate.

 Chapter 8 in Braybrook et al. is brilliant: A Rules-Analysis, Following Foucault, of the Birth of Clinical Medicine.

I've been in situations when surgery is suggested for an older person, and family, friends wonder is this really necessary? This chapter literally brings the history home, and not only that, but the emergence of the hospital system, versus care at home, in the community. The social determinants of health have been ever-present. This is essential reading for students, with the history of ICD, and the history of medicine. There are insights too into public attitudes and expectations to health services and provision here in the UK and in France.

For me, and Hodges' model, the significance of Braybrook, Brown, Schotch and Byrne is that it precedes:

Sallach, D.L. Categorical Social Science: Theory, Methodology and Design. September 2012
Conference: Fourth World Congress on Social Simulation. Taipei, Taiwan.
https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/Sallach2012CategoricalSoSci4.WCSS-SS.pdf

And so, I do need my own secondhand copy of  Logic on the Track of Social Change. More to follow (indeed)! ... and help still welcome and needed.

 

Previously: Re. Sallach - 'Distance: Shoulders and ships that pass...' : 'history of medicine'

The 8th International Conference on Law Enforcement & Public Health

Vulnerability, policing and public health

6 - 9 September 2026
University of Leeds, UK

About the Conference

The Global Law Enforcement and Public Health Association (GLEPHA) and the ESRC Vulnerability & Policing Futures Research Centre will jointly host the 8th International Law Enforcement and Public Health Conference, LEPH2026 in Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK from 6-9 September 2026.

Following highly successful conferences in North America, Africa and Europe, the 2026 global event in Leeds presents a unique opportunity to spotlight global research and world-leading practice across law enforcement and public health. The 2026 overarching theme will be vulnerability, policing and public health.

The conference will be open to law enforcement and public health agencies, national and local governments, relevant research bodies, academic institutes, policy makers as well as the commercial sector and other partner organisations. Bringing these diverse communities and perspectives together, the conference presents an ideal space for sharing and learning about new approaches, instigating and developing real change in practice, based on the best available evidence internationally.

Full details - conference website ...

My source: Culling followers on Twitter '0 posts', last post years ago ...X may have been accepted legally as a signature, but it might denote injury, illness, or illiteracy. Twitter diehards really are in a 'graveyard'. And yet, amidst the tombstones, I found a POLITICAL care domain gem in @LEPH2026, which led me to @GLEPHAssoc. I will follow when allowed.

Previously: 'law' : 'vulnerability' : 'public health'

AI-2026 46th SGAI International Conference on Artificial Intelligence CAMBRIDGE, ENGLAND, DECEMBER

THIRD CALL FOR PAPERS AND POSTERS

The proceedings of the AI-20xx conference series are now published by Springer in Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI), a sub-series of the distinguished Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS) series of conference proceedings.

AI-2026: Cambridge, UK, December 15th-17th 2026

Organised by BCS SGAI: The British Computer Society Specialist Group on Artificial Intelligence (a EurAi Member Society).

The leading series of UK-based international conferences on Artificial Intelligence and one of the longest running AI conference series in Europe.

CALL FOR CONTRIBUTIONS

http://www.bcs-sgai.org/ai2026/

AI-2026 is the forty-sixth SGAI International Conference on Innovative Techniques and Applications of Artificial Intelligence.

The scope of the conference comprises the whole range of AI technologies and application areas. AI-2026 reviews recent technical advances in AI technologies and shows how these advances have been applied to solve business problems. Key features are:

• Papers will be published by Springer in the Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI) subseries of the popular Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS) series (www.springer.com/lncs).
• Papers are invited in two streams. The Technical Stream presents the best of recent developments in AI, covering a wide range of technical areas. The Application Stream is the largest annual showcase in Europe of real applications using AI technology.
• It is expected that the best papers will be reprinted in expanded form in a special issue of an international journal.
• A mixture of full papers (maximum 14 A4 pages) presented orally and short papers (maximum 6 A4 pages) presented as posters. Papers of both kinds will be included in the proceedings.
• Prizes for best paper and best student paper in each stream and best presented short/poster paper.
• Invited keynote lectures.
• The first day comprises tutorials and workshops to provide greater depth in selected topics. (Separate one-day registration for this day is also available.)
• A panel session on a topical subject.
• An 'AI Open Mic' session to allow delegates to have their say about any aspect of AI.
• In addition to the formal sessions, the conference programme includes a welcome reception and a Gala Dinner.

AI-2026 offers a valuable opportunity to keep up to date with developments in AI and to share experiences in the practical issues of developing AI systems.

FAIRS '26, the eighteenth annual forum for AI research students will immediately precede the AI-2026 conference at Peterhouse College on Monday December 14th, 2026. The aim of FAIRS is to support student members of the AI community providing advice and feedback on their research plans and work. This event is free of charge for research students except for a contribution towards the cost of refreshments and lunch in the College and no conference registration is required.

IMPORTANT DATES

• Paper/Poster Submission: Friday 26th June 2026

This deadline is considerably later than for previous conferences in this series and will not be extended.

• Notification of Acceptance: Tuesday September 1st 2026
• Camera Ready Paper: Monday 14th September 2026

CONTRIBUTIONS

Contributions presenting original work in AI are invited for both the technical and the application stream. Contributions may be submitted either as full papers of up to fourteen A4 pages for oral presentation or as short papers of up to six A4 pages for poster presentation.

• Technical Stream

Areas of interest include (but are not restricted to): knowledge engineering; semantic web; constraint satisfaction; intelligent agents; machine learning; model based reasoning; verification and validation of AI systems; natural language understanding; speech-enabled systems; case based reasoning; neural networks; genetic algorithms; data mining and knowledge discovery in databases; knowledge representation, inference and reasoning; robotics and pervasive computing; qualitative and temporal reasoning; knowledge management; AI languages and environments; robotics and pervasive computing; large language models.

• Application Stream

Case studies are welcomed describing the application of AI to real-world problems. Papers in recent years have covered all application domains, including commerce, manufacturing and government, and every major AI technique. In addition to case studies and specific applications of AI, we would welcome papers that discuss issues such as managing the transfer from research to production of AI-based products. Papers are selected to highlight critical areas of success (and failure) and to present the benefits and lessons of value to other developers. Submitted papers should make these points clear.

• Short Papers for Poster Presentation

Short papers are intended for the presentation of work which meets the high standards of the conference, but which is more topical and preliminary than the work presented in full papers. They provide an excellent forum for disseminating new developments and latest work in progress, especially suited to PhD students. Work submitted in the form of full-length papers that fall short of the standard for oral presentation will automatically be considered as candidates for reworking as short papers for poster presentation.

• Submission of Papers

Final versions of accepted papers must be prepared in either Microsoft Word or Latex together with a copy in PDF format. Initial versions of papers should be submitted in PDF format only and uploaded to the conference website by the deadline given above. Instructions for authors and templates for both Word and Latex are given at

http://www.springer.com/gp/computer-science/lncs/conference-proceedings-guidelines

In order for an accepted paper to be published at least one author must register for the conference and undertake to attend and present the paper in person. Presenting authors will be asked to register for the conference at the discounted speakers' rate when they return the final camera-ready versions of their papers.

• Tutorials & workshops

The Conference Committee invites proposals for tutorials and workshops to be presented on the first day of the conference. These should be directed in the first instance to the Tutorial/Workshop Organiser.

• Prizes

There are prizes for the best paper and best student paper submitted in each stream, chosen by the relevant program committee, and also a prize for the best presented short/poster paper, awarded on the basis of delegate voting.

All further information including details of the conference committee, program committees, paper format and uploading instructions is given on the conference website.

ALL CORRESPONDENCE SHOULD BE SENT BY EMAIL TO THE CONFERENCE SECRETARIAT:
sgai-conference AT bcs.org.uk

My source: BCS-SGAI