Optimism - Pessimism c/o Baggini & Macaro

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Cognitive flaws, or psychological adaptations? 'Van der Lugt: "reality confound" ... Optimists believe they have more control over what happens than they actually do.'   Dunning-Kruger Effect:  people tend to overestimate their own expertise. Baumeister:  "The negativity effect"   Norem: "defensive pessimism"	Optimism and Pessimism are independent scales. 'Age also makes a difference, for the simple reason that life and its potential future vary accordingly.' 'Designated Cassandra'^ Rotation of role. 'When your prospects are bleak, a gloomy outlook is realism, not pessimism.'
'... how optimistic we feel depends not just on us, but on our life circumstances.  Think about how race, class and social inequality have real impacts on life chances.'	'In western culture, optimism is valorised more than pessimism.' 'To suggest that people struggling in an unequal system should simply adopt a more positive attitude is to turn social and economic problems into psychological ones.'

^With apologies.

Source: J. Baggini, A. Macaro. In defence of pessimism. Or. why optimism is not quite a prerequisite for achieving a valued goal. FT Weekend Magazine, 1131: June 28, 2025, pp.18-20.
https://www.julianbaggini.com/in-defence-of-pessimism/

Books noted in the above article:

Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias: A tour of the irrationally positive brain. Pantheon/Random House.

Tierney, J., & Baumeister, R.F. (2019). The power of bad: How the negativity effect rules us — and how we can rule it. New York: Penguin.

Van der Lugt, M. (2025). Hopeful Pessimism. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/jj.17707125

See also:

Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer, C., & Vohs, K. D. (2001). Bad is stronger than good. Review of General Psychology, 5(4), 323–370. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.5.4.323

A Voyage in Cosmic Health ... loneliness

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[2] 'Most pressingly, Voyager 1 has severe memory loss It stopped speaking clearly on November 14. All they received at JPL was a carrier signal. This was described to me in many ways: flatlining, an interstellar dial tone, useless ones and zeros, gibberish, no data. Imagine your friend is on a long journey and sends you a detailed letter every day, then, one day, empty envelopes start arriving. What happened to your friend? How do you help?' p.21.

[1] 'VOYAGER 1 SUFFERS MANY AILMENTS OF AGE. It has arthritis. During its planetary encounters, the team excitedly swung the camera and other instruments this way and that; this squeezed the lubricant out of the bearings of its articulated platform. Only painstakingly slow movements could loosen its joints. It also has heart disease, as Todd Barber, its propulsion engineer, explained. The arteries that deliver its propellant, which keeps it perfectly pointed at Earth, are partially clogged. Barber calls himself a space plumber and wore a shirt with flying saucers on it as we spoke in the Voyager office. He had considered all the usual cardiological remedies.  Diet: unfortunately, Voyager eats only the propellant hydrazine, total junk food.  Exercise: they haven't thought of a way to fire the thrusters to clear the blockage.  Medication: so they've relaxed its alignment a bit and fire its thrusters less often; in other words, Voyager is on beta blockers.' p.21.

My source - with thanks - brilliant writing! 

Roeder O. TERMINATION SHOCK. Last Days of a Lonely Interstellar Spacecraft. FT Magazine, August 3/4 2024. pp.18-27. https://www.ft.com/content/0f2dce04-ec78-4aeb-808c-cff5b5135699

https://www.ft.com/content/90b6aaaa-b192-48d9-bd43-e6f41978ad1c

Book: "The Things That Really Matter"

Philosophical conversations on the cornerstones of life

[ open access ]

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"The Things That Really Matter"

Source: Literature search - inc. Dewey, reflect.

More corners - and yes - all can be 'found' here.

https://twitter.com/imathematicians/status/1530724466073952261?s=20&t=eF1XRD9HbkSJ2XWWbIk2qQ

Hybrid therapy (Early) c/o Fernández-Navarro, Camarós, and Garate

... Family and Art Therapy?

 

Abstract

"This paper presents rock art as a collective action in which different strata of society took part, including children and subadults. Until recent decades archaeology of childhood has not been in the main focus of the archaeological research, much less the participation of those children in the artistic activity. The present study approaches the palaeodemography of artists in the decorated caves through the paleolithic rock art itself. The approximate age of these individuals has been calculated through the biometric analysis of hand stencils in the caves of Fuente del Salín, Castillo, La Garma, Maltravieso and Fuente del Trucho, using 3D photogrammetric models as reference. The results have been compared with a modern reference population in order to assign the Palaeolithic hands to certain age groups. It has been demonstrated the presence of hand stencil motifs belongs to infants, children and juveniles, revealing this stratum's importance in the artistic activity."

 

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	[Fig. 4. ] Study measurement system and current sample measurement 1. Hand Length; 2. Hand Width; 3. Thumb Length; 4. Thumb Width; 5. Index finger Length; 6. Index finger Width; 7. Middle finger Length; 8. Miggle finger; 9. Ring finger Length; 10. Ring finger Width; 11. Little finger Length; 12. Little finger.
"Children may have had a hand in a quarter of prehistoric art"

Fernández-Navarro, V., Camarós, E., & Garate, D. (2022). Visualizing childhood in Upper Palaeolithic societies: Experimental and archaeological approach to artists’ age estimation through cave art hand stencils. Journal of Archaeological Science, 140, 105574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2022.105574

My source:

Badcock, James. "Children may have had a hand in a quarter of prehistoric art". The Daily Telegraph. 12 March 2022, p.15.

Mother?

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Give Up!	Give Up!
GIVE UP!	GIVE UP![You will!]

 

... your baby

 

My source: BBC Radio 4 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57251782

Stranger in a strange land: 'Adult' CMHT

I've started working in an 'adult' community mental health team. This is a change in character from older adults and in Hodges' model we can draw the discussion on this out in several directions.

The 'adult' - 'older adult' distinction on one hand may seem discriminatory. So, once you are aged 65 you move to another service? On the other hand there are many scholars / professionals who have over many decades fought to have older people's needs recognised, represented and funded as a distinct speciality. There are protocols accepted and practiced that should - must also take into account the patients (carers) wishes allied with needs and circumstances.

The 'character' is also different between adult - older adult, but both carry unique challenges*. This must always be the case if the patients and their situation are viewed as unique.

3.5 days in - I'm already aware of changes in community mental health provision. My previous experience 16-65 goes back to 1995, apart from having some patients during studies in psychosocial intervention in psychosis.

There seems to be more chronicity and I have a sense that suddenly 'nursing' has a welfare and benefits problem solving flavour to it.

The summit I've just posted about is invaluable learning, as I have inherited a caseload of people living with varying forms of diagnosed personality disorder. I'll expand on this experience over the next few weeks. This is timely as I have re-validation next year.

Over many years I have heard of Paris the clinical record system. Now I will be having training and become a 'user'. Looking forward ...

*With challenges also come rewards!

PRIMEtime CE: a multistate life table model for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions affecting diet and physical activity

When I saw Adam Brigg's tweet and thread the figure below stood out.

I have modelled some of the concepts using Hodges' model. I have added some additions, flagging gender* to highlight way this and other factors (often) need to be considered in a multicontextual manner.

There is a lot more of course, including the reference list; for example Squires, et al. which pose some interesting questions.

81. Squires H, Chilcott J, Akehurst R, Burr J, Kelly MP. A framework for developing the structure of public health economic models. Value Health. 2016;19:588–601.

Fig. 1 The PRIMEtime CE conceptual model

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Interventions over time individual behaviours motivation	model: outputs AGE, GENDER* Active People Survey DIET - PHYSICAL ACTIVITY cardio-vascular disease - heart disease,  stroke, diabetes,  liver disease, cancers, raised blood pressure, cholesterol, and body weight TIME: chronological-pathological PROCESS
PRACTICE behaviours - social over time social care socio -	population health POLICY health economics health care costs social care costs return on investment - economics

My source (and do follow Adam's full-thread):

2/
The first paper is here. It describes the PRIMEtime CE model.

This builds on @Pete_Scarbs and Linda Cobiac's work on the PRIMEtime model (and PRIME before then). My contribution was to add utilities + health & social care costs.https://t.co/B0Fu9uP4ru pic.twitter.com/aGaMcpwIks

— Adam Briggs (@ADMBriggs) July 17, 2019

"Making legal advice a clinical department" Dept of Clinical Law

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	Definitions: Child in England and Wales < 18 years of age
"Changing views in society have pushed...	"Making legal advice a clinical department"  'child' : 'adult' mental capacity, deprivation of liberty, candidness and forethought, end of life decisions, treating physical illness in the mental ill, consent, confidentiality and treatment refusals (p.20) ... legal considerations of patient rights to  the front of clinician's agendas"

Wheeler, R., & Marsh, M. (2016). Making legal advice a clinical department. Health Service Journal, April 13, 126: 6482, 20-21.

More SF (speculations on person-centred care...?)

I've been reading a bit more SF - this time Joe Haldeman's, The Forever War here's a fascinating excerpt:

I went to the phone in the kitchen and with some difficulty managed to get through to the hospital. A plain girl in her twenties formed in the cube. "Nurse Donalson, general services." She had a fixed smile, professional sincerity. But then everybody smiled.
"My mother needs to be looked at by a doctor. She has a --"
"Name and number, please."
"Beth Mandella." I spelled it.
"What number?"
"Medical services number, of course," she smiled.
I called into Mom and asked her what her number was.
"She says she can't remember."
"That's alright, sir, I'm sure I can find her records."
She turned her smile to a keyboard beside her and punched out a code.
"Beth Mandella?" she said, her smile turning quizzical.
"You're her son? She must be in her eighties."
"Please. It's a long story. She really has to see a doctor."
"Is this some kind of joke?"
"What do you mean?" Strangled coughing from the other room, the worse yet. "Really -- this might be very serious, you've got to--"
"But sir, Mrs. Mandella got a zero priority rating way back in 2010. "
"What the hell is that supposed to mean?"
"S-i-r . . ." The smile was hardening in place.
"Look. Pretend I come from another planet. What is a 'zero priority rating'?"
"Another -- oh I know you!" She looked off to the left.
"Sonya -- come over here a second. You'd never guess who .." Another face crowded the cube, a vapid blonde girl who smile was twin to the other nurse's. "Remember? On the stat this morning?"
"Oh, yeah," she said. "One of the soldiers -- hey, that's really max, really max." The head withdrew.
"Oh, Mr Mandella," she said, effusive. "No wonder you're confused. It's really very simple."
"Well?"
"It's part of the Universal Medical Security System. Everybody gets a rating on their seventieth birthday. It comes in automatically from Geneva."
"What does it rate? What does it mean?" But the ugly truth was obvious.
"Well, it tells how important a person is and what level of treatment he's allowed. Class three is the same as anybody else's; class two is the same except for certain life-extending--"
"And class zero is no treatment at all."
"That's correct, Mr Mandella." And in her smile was not a glimmer of pity or understanding.
"Thank you." I disconnected. Marygay was standing behind me, crying soundlessly with her mouth wide open. ...

Joe Haldeman, The Forever War, Gollancz, SF Masterworks, pp.148-149.

Link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Forever_War

Romeo and Juliet – the care home version

Octogenarian versions of Shakespeare's lovers to feature in Bristol production

Directed By Tom Morris

Fresh from co-directing the West End hit, War Horse, and Tom Stoppard and Andre Previn's orchestral experiment Every Good Boy Deserves Favour at the National Theatre, Tom Morris' own theatrical exploration of Bristol Old Vic begins with a project that has been twelve years in the making: Juliet and Her Romeo, the story of a flourishing love affair in one generation, crushed by the financial and political concerns of another.

Developed since 1997 in collaboration with Minder producer Sean O'Connor, the production uses Shakespeare's text, but casts our lovers in their 80s, with their anxious children, not their parents, seeking to prevent an imprudent and costly match.
With Sian Phillips as Juliet and Michael Byrne as Romeo, this production invites a generation of actors of global stature to play great Shakespearean roles which they never thought they'd play again. Tim Barlow, Terry Taplin and Michael Medwin return to Bristol Old Vic as Tybalt, Benvolio and Paris. Dudley Sutton makes his debut on the Bristol Old Vic stage as Mercutio.
What family has not wrestled with the question of how we care for our parents as they become older and frailer? Who will love them? Who will support them? Who will pay for their care?
And with that care, what controls should we apply? If we have taken power of attorney, what about the freedom to fall in love, to give gifts, to marry unwisely?
As Ben Power's recent two-handed exploration of passionate love remembered in old age demonstrated, Shakespeare's text is a powerful love story for any generation.
Signed, Captioned and Audio Described Performances.
Signed performance: Sat 10 April 2.30pm
Captioned performance: Sat 17 April 2.30pm
Audio described performance: Sat 24 April 2.30pm
Additional link:
BBC Culture Show

The Conceptual Age needs tools to catch, match and patch ...

I have finally read some of Dan Pink's book A Whole New Mind: Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age.

The graphic copied here from the book is interesting for this blog and its readers by both what is included - the conceptual age and what is omitted.

Pink's graphic supports and reinforces what I have felt for many years. Namely, that in Hodges' model we have a conceptual framework fit for our time and purposes. Looking at the figure developmentally then of course we think conceptually from a very early age in order to make sense of self, other, world and future.

Pink's graphic is interesting in that as depicted here we have not reached the knowledge age as yet. While these ages are discrete when conducting health and social care and other activities the boundaries are of course unclear and fuzzy.

Being in the conceptual age we need tools that can catch our care and related concepts. A stage that makes them accessible for reflection and association.

Moving further towards the knowledge age we then need tools that can recognise patterns in our concepts and begin to match them.

For safety's sake we then need to recognise the important concepts missed in our assessments, problem solving, project management and service improvement processes ... These tools will be able to suggest and patch the gaps in our framework and hence our understanding.

Image original source: http://elearningtech.pbworks.com/f/daniel-pink-conceptual-age.png

Additional links:

Dan Pink - A Whole New Mind

'conceptual spaces' on W2tQ

'concepts' on W2tQ

Reflecting on this it is a shame that there is no Innocent Age any longer or what there is often cut short.
The least we can do is to try to preserve it for as long as possible ...